Can$

[mbdog]

Anyone have thoughts about declining Can$. Looks weak for this quarter. Technical support levels? Looks like its getting wrapped up in global macro spin and perhaps lots of room to the downside/downside risk for some time.

[mbdog]

Should the Can$ decline, what effect, if any will this have on basis levels thru winter if Can$ continues leak lower? The buyers...are they loading/loaded up on front/deferred paper grain now? and settling the currency near the end of the front trading month? Cheap currency and cheap?futures should make cash market interesting.? Will the macro global issues pound grain futures or will futures turn this quarter? Ag going to pull the economy out of the fire?

[mbdog]

seeing maybe 84ish Can$.

[bucket]

A 84 cent dollar would convert our wheat to 6.60 at today's price in mpls.

If you are addicted to the smell of new paint it might sting.

[ajl]

Canadian dollar the same as the price of oil. If oil heads to 70 then Canadian dollar lower. I think oil will go into the 70 range for a while then head higher in a year or two.

[FarmLead]

Oil likely won't drop below $75/barrel in our opinion. That being said, CDN Loonie likely has room to run down to 85 cents. That being said, options in the current market to sell to buyers across the line who can pay the CDN-USD differential.

[charliep]

The dow ain't looking pretty either. Rough roads ahead in the overall economy as has been highlighted here in numerous threads.

[FarmLead]

Multi-year highs in the equity markets are pointing to the reality that it could be overbought. Accordingly, could see an outflow of capital from equities in the next 6 months back into commodities. More firms may be willing to hold cash though for a few months after these past few years of positive returns.

[errolanderson]

FarmLead . . . fallout in equities will not support commodities (IMO). The is a broad global deflationary pull on markets . . . commodities included.

Easy paper money gains sponsored by central bank manipulation over the past 2 to 3 years may become quick paper money losses that may not be recouped.

Deflation is a new concept for all of us, as no one has witnessed this in their lifetime.

Managing costs will be very important for all businesses ahead.

[FarmLead]

Solid points Errol. Deflationary pressures are very real. Easy money from central banks has supported markets since 2009 though, it's just been augmented the last 2-3 years. For those who aren't reading Mr. Anderson clear, deflation is when inflation and prices for goods/services go down, therefore increasing the value/cost of debt. Specifically, the type of deflation Mr. Anderson is discussing is caused by the ECB & US Federal Reserve: when less businesses are willing to borrow from them, there is less money in "circulation" which can lead to a fall-off in demand for goods/services. Therefore, there is more supply of goods & services than there is demand, forcing prices to fall. Further reading here on Japan got hit hard by deflation in early 1990s (http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2002/729/ifdp729.pdf) but I think the technological innovations in the late 1800s which created a period of deflation in the US economy is a better example/comparison to current times.

[dave4441]

Long and short of it is higher usdx, lower usd value for grain, weaker cad offsets it somewhat and price doesn't change much. Might see it impact something hot like durum pricing.

[cottonpicken]

Farmlead so in your opinion you should go long yen and short gold?thats your synopsis in a nutshell

Or do you really know what your talking about?

[FarmLead]

Haha cottonpicken nailed it. Not giving any play calls to go off of. Simply put, global growth is seemingly slowing. And a Yale degree in Economics & a few years of Wall St. macro/commoodity analysis would suggest I know what I'm talking about. You have any transparent market commentary I can follow? Sign up to the free FarmLead Breakfast Brief: http://www.farmlead.com/blog/term/breakfast-brief