Target prices

[Daylate]

Haven't used them in 3 years now on transparent markets. (canola) They never left a good feeling in my gut.
Always feel used!
Even at high prices!
Off spec cereals can work when you give the market time to feel out what company got the big export sale. Then target that company. No one company hits it big on certain crops every year. It's right place right time, just like the rest of farming.

[oneoff]

The comment about "certainty" is very apt.

It works for agricuture agribusiness...at the expense of farmers ; everytime.

[farmaholic]

Has anyone seen or have this happen to them, your target price agreement gets triggered and that very day or a day later the market price is higher?

[fjlip]

Nearly every time, just last week.

[bucket]

It supposed to make you feel special.

Until you realize that targets are an abuse of the open market and farmers.

It would be better if we had a transparent reporting system that told you sales for the week. Then targets might make sense.


Graincos in Canada have no risk. And no accountability.

Too bad the ag mi minister that says he stands up for farmers would give us that options. He may be should sat he stands up for railways and graincos.

He hasn't spoke about the issues in western canada. But like his office told me not alot of problems in North battleford.

[hobbyfrmr]

I like the idea there is no harm in setting high targets, it sends a message for sure.
Farmers can not hold grain. They need the money to cash flow their operations. We had a couple years of solid profits. Most of that profit went into newer machinery higher rent and higher land prices. The party is over. Hangover time.
Farming has always been this way.
One of my fist nations friend has an excellent saying "chicken today, feathers tomorrow".

[tstep]

Will drop my 10 TPA on Tuesday and put in for 12 on my tonnage. You are right, put in higher TPA's

[GOODRUM]

That's great tstep!
Like I said earlier I don't have any TPA's at the moment but on Tuesday I'll be doing some $12 as well.

It's a start! Anyone else ?
Another thing I noticed is the timeline they always suggest is quite long, it's like their instructed to tie it up for as long as possible, even without triggering it.

[oneoff]

For everyone who puts in $12.00 you can count on an $11.99.

There really needs to be cooperation from the $11.99 er's. Those "farmers" are key to getting some confidence in turning the "race to the bottom" around.

[bucket]

Just pull the tpa and don't put another in for a couple of weeks.

Should of suggested it 3 weeks ago they had no wheat on the books and after doing durum the graincos would have been thumbing it.

Now wheat is moving modestly but it would be nice to see them bid to fill a train.

[farmaholic]

Don't Target Prices basically keep them out of the "Futures" market? Wheats of course are a different story, domestically there is none and probably will stay that way. How long before canola's becomes dysfunctional?

[bucket]

It already is. Canola use to rarely trade at a discount to soy. Has been for 2 years now.

I think target pricing has kept it from being fluid and transparent.

Keep in mind the domestic end users are the graincos. They make the margins on both the buying of canola and the crush.

Read - zero risk at any price.

Remember when the highest price of the year was off the combine? The carryover was zero and the statscan numbers still showed half a million tonne carryover.

Numbers never get zeroed out or properly accounted for. Makes the system questionable.

Look at soy. They had been importing and harvest is now running late. Soy is moving as fast as its coming off the field. Not long ago basis levels were plus 3 bucks a bushel. Pipeline was empty. An earlier harvest would have smoke and mirrored some of that. Not now. Even a record soy crop will be gone. And the lower the price, the quicker.

More reporting transparency in the states for sales both in old and new crop indicate the beans are or will have to move.

Lots of factors but in Canada we have no info to look at. Like daily or weekly sales data.

So we get on TPAs with vertically integrated companies that don't have to report shit. And they make it both ways.