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Market comments from Aus sure you will agree

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  • malleefarmer
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2005
    • 5424

    Market comments from Aus sure you will agree

    US wheat futures settled 9-14 cents lower on another flood of bearish news. The US dollar posted a new 4-year high close, the Euro and Australian dollar ended weaker. Informa raised its 2014/15 US all wheat production estimate slightly. NOAA projects an active pattern of precip across the S Plains through October, and an improvement or end to drought conditions there by the end of 2014. The primary issue is export demand. EU wheat (low and high protein) is of cheaper than US and Black Sea offers and primed to fill upcoming tenders. Major importers are also extending coverage into late 2014 and early 2015. US Gulf basis ended the week down a meager 5 cents, and US wheat offers into December are not competitive. The US market has rationed supply too well! GASC is seeking wheat for late Oct delivery. A purchase of French origin is likely. US will struggle to be offered and will lose out on higher freight costs. Russia needs to garner Egyptian demand to clear it supply. Informa pegged total 14/15 US wheat production at 2,046 Mil, 16 Mil higher than NASS’s latest forecast. Greater spring wheat production is cited, and this will push US 2014/14 wheat end stocks above 700 Mil Bu. The CFTC’s weekly report pegged managed funds net short position as of Tuesday at 67,300 contracts. It is also noted that index funds’ net long position is slowly eroding as well. The market has exceeded our downside target, but until US exporters find some non-traditional interest, no lasting rally is expected. Ultimately, competing with EU wheat at $225/MT implies $4.40-4.60 Dec CME futures
  • errolanderson
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2012
    • 3146

    #2
    Global commodities in-general now caught in a deflationary grip. Inflation is dead 'n buried (IMO) in the current economic environment.

    Mallee . . . our Toronto TSX stock index is under pressure due to loses in the energy and precious metal sectors.

    Concerns now heard from G-20 financial leaders.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-21/g-20-sees-potential-for-excessive-risk-in-markets-amid-low-rates.html

    Comment

    • SASKFARMER3
      Senior Member
      • Feb 2006
      • 14485

      #3
      Who Didnt see this coming! Article how landlords of farm land should look where their investments off farm pay and readjust! Ah 2.5%I can live with paying for rent not 8%

      Comment

      • blackpowder
        Senior Member
        • Feb 2010
        • 9340

        #4
        Ha, they'll have to readjust their budget and charge you more to compensate.

        Comment

        • SASKFARMER3
          Senior Member
          • Feb 2006
          • 14485

          #5
          It can sit! Their big dog was complaining this spring about rent his three years are up this fall!

          Comment

          • errolanderson
            Senior Member
            • Jan 2012
            • 3146

            #6
            Interesting note . . . Egypt bought U.S. wheat overnight.

            This is Egypt's first purchase of American wheat since February. This also suggests that Russian wheat prices are rising likely to war induced domestic inflation hiking prices.

            Comment

            • Braveheart
              Senior Member
              • Feb 2001
              • 3257

              #7
              Forget the markets. Did you go to the barley banquet at Rupanyup, Malleefarmer?

              Comment

              • malleefarmer
                Senior Member
                • Nov 2005
                • 5424

                #8
                3 and half hours away in next state nah

                Comment

                • Braveheart
                  Senior Member
                  • Feb 2001
                  • 3257

                  #9
                  Darn. Looks like a good time.

                  Comment

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