Canola - upside not till Jan/ Feb??

[bucket]

My post was directed to farming 10 comments.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, the canola chart seems to be indicating some support at about $410 per tonne on the November. Soyoil futures have also bounced off lows. As I have indicated in the past, my first look every morning is the charts. Lots of challenges ahead. If you are bullish, stay long/bin canola.

[bucket]

There is upside. But I just want to forget 2014 and everything that goes with it. Stupid but it getting sold. Less work and wear and tear.

[mbdog]

Charlie...although I used the words long bin, it was meant as "trying to get crop off the field"....hopefully. And I think most producers are focusing on this challenge right now. Being short physical or off grade cud really bite producers in the ass. Trade still talking/dialing in "estimates", and the marketing/rush-to-sell rhetoric farmers are being fed is getting annoying when so much uncertainty exists.

[bucket]

Charliep

Can you answer the durum price differential?

Or is it easier to say the market is right and arbritrage is out of your vocabulary.

[charliep]

I would agree that I wouldn't be selling any more unharvested crop I was uncomfortable with production or grade. Crop in the bin might be another story if I had need for bin space, cashflow or worried about storage issues (moisture/heating). Offer me $5/tonne over and its gone. If I were bullish, I would use the other tools you have tried to get discussion on in other threads.

Actually I am neither bearish or bullish at this point. Errol and I agree on the challenges to higher prices ahead. Prices have come down a long ways and there are some early signs of bottoming for soybean oil.

From the quote, just trying to be a realist. Patience and planning are likely the two best skills in marketing.

[charliep]

Arbitrage is about looking for opportunities and making sales to capture them. Anybody who sees higher prices in the US/sells there to capture them is using arbitrage. If enough farmers do that, prices will come together. Western Canada moved a significant amount of wheat including durum across the border last year. Farmers who took that opportunity put money in their pockets. They can tell you how much and their challenges if any.

[Braveheart]

Charlie, I agree on arbitrage. It doesn't happen on its own, it has to be made to happen.

Basis in ND elevators on wheat has narrowed by 35-40 cents in recent weeks. We all know what futures have done.

The challenges going there are not insurmountable. Anyone can do it. We're waiting to see what ND quality is compared to ours before we take any samples.

[Braveheart]

To be clear, I'm not saying funds are responsible for futures down slide. The trend is their friend and they are following.

Lower highs, lower lows, is down.

It's just that when the funds do exit their short positions there should be little blip upon a down market.

[SASKFARMER3]

Brave heart they have shit quality both spring wheat and barley down their!

[bucket]

Braveheart

You can get grain to the states for free?

And driving past 15 Canadian elevators in the process.

Why don't the buyers come to Canada and buy for less.

Your logic is flawed.

[Braveheart]

Well Bucket, I've never been logical. Just a bad seed.

I'm lucky though. 7 miles from 3 grain terminals in Canada. 12 miles to the closest US elevator.

Nothing is free. US actually does reach into Canada, but not for less. We're loading 2 producer cars (wheat) for a US company next month. Very good price, booked Feb 2014.

[Braveheart]

SK3, I've heard quality in ND is poor. But we'll have to be patient to let everyone figure out exactly what's there and what to do about it.

[bucket]

Braveheart

I did not know your location. Then yes I understand the logic . The option isn't there for further distances.

[Jagfarms]

We needed the bin space so we hauled in 88% of our canola off the combine to our local grain terminal the CWB just purchased.
1/3 that was delivered we sold at a -5$ basis. The price worked out to close to $9.40 a bu.
The other 2/3 delivered we contracted at a -20 basis and can price it any time between now an Jan.

Price will most likely go up after Jan .
We trucked it right off the combine to our terminal. Don't have to worry about the canola getting out of condition. I figure it would cost me about 50 cents a bu to bin it then haul it in later. It freed up quite a bit of airation bins we can use for our durum now.