StatsCan July 31 Stocks Report

[charliep]

For those that are interested, the July 31 stocks report. No big surprises.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140905/t140905c001-eng.htm"]July 31 stocks[/URL]

[Oliver88]

I still think the canola carryover is overblown at 2.36 MMT.
The initial error would be the 2013 yield number.
Just my opinion.

[charliep]

Because almost all canola is delivered into the commercial system, we will have an answer to your question someday. That crop year may be 2014/15. If exports and crush combined remain at 16 MMT, the inventory at the end of the current crop year will be significantly lower than this year. Everyone can play with their own 2014 canola production estimates and S&D.

[SASKFARMER3]

And that's how the market manipulates the farmer! Yea all is in system and two years after they FU$&ed us on price before oats crash the truth will come out!

[bucket]

This isn't rocket science.

A Walmart calculator could figure production and disappearance.

It's just plus and minus.

Shouldn't have 2 years to manipulate the data.

It's criminal.

[bucket]

Anyone that disagrees is just justifying their jobs and salaries that are a leeching off the government/ the rest of us.

[charliep]

That is an interesting comment. They are just numbers. At this point history. My main interest is the consumption side/disappearance side.

[bucket]

That's when you use the minus sign on the calculator.

[errolanderson]

Charlie . . . my personal take was this report was slightly bullish. A lot of these stock numbers were below trade estimate.

Maybe I have my head is screwed on backwards today.

The problem though is that world production gains make this Cdn report meaningless to prices.

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol don't worry about works supply next wed will fix that fast! Corn not even ready and late in USA and soy same! Ah nature evens out balance sheets! Also Australia has a bumper on way! Yea wait my 2032 looks mind blowing huge!
Basically canada had a railway shit show then add in the stupid farmer yapping about crops yields looking at the combine yield monitor with no calibration or even figuring dockage! Then the railways screwed ip more and the grain companies figured wow what a pay day everyone will blame the railways and we win! Ka Ching!
Shitty reporting that's so old the info is useless !

[bucket]

Let me clarify my comments.

If canada had a transparent reporting system it would be an easy calculation.

We don't nor a government that wants to implement a system that is more transparent.

[charliep]

Lots of work going on in area by both governments and the private sector. Just curious what you would have industry/government do differently than today?

Question was about canola so here are the numbers from the farm stocks tables.

Total supplies 2013/14 - 18 MMT tonnes which is made up of 2013 production plus close to no on farm carryover Aug. 1. Canola deliveries - 16 MMT. Dockage - 600,000 tonnes (bigger than expected but not out of line). On farm carryover this past August 1 - 1.4 MMT. You can argue with it but survey based.

2014/15 - Farm inventory August 1 - 1.4 MMT. Production you put your number in but last Statcan 13.9 MMT. Supplies this year - 15.3 MMT based on the information/assumptions. We can argue about production but regardless a tighter supply demand.

Soybean oil today - 32 cents/lb.

[bucket]

How about weekly sales, rail car, port space, prairie space reports for a start.

That's easy to find. Oh wait, they do that in the states.


Sales are reported weekly and daily if it's large enough. Public, accountable and mandatory.

that's a start.

[farmaholic]

Then they couldn't use that cloak of secrecy to their benefit. Knowledge is power and its best to keep the peasants ignorant, easier to take advantage of that way. Funny how the Government wants or supposedly demands production(crap insurance, aginvest/stability, StatsCanada surveys) and inventory information from Producers but the rest of the Industry doesn't have to report. Why do our numbers matter so much?

[tipsy]

From what I see in my canola fields and my neighbour's canola field's and from what I read from this and other farm web sites. I find myself wondering who is going to go short canola first. The elevator system and export program or the crushing industry??
My guess would be Harrowby first then Yorkton crush and about the same time the export program..
And from my sideline seat the industry better hope the carry over numbers are some what accurate!!!