aussie crop forecast under pressure

[malleefarmer]

http://www.stockjournal.com.au/news/agriculture/cropping/general-news/aussie-crop-forecast-under-pressure/2709360.aspx

[malleefarmer]

THERE are some signs current grain production forecasts across Australia will come under pressure.

A widespread rain event across Queensland and northern NSW has largely been interpreted by the market as slightly disappointing across the grain belt, while Victoria and South Australia continue to be locked in a pattern of heavy frosts and little rain.

The rain through Queensland and northern NSW delivered widespread tallies of 25 millimetres, but only isolated falls of above 50mm, which was what was predicted across much of the area.

In Western Australia, analysts are suggesting the northern areas around Geraldton are struggling somewhat, although there are many areas that still look good.

After a dream start, it is now back to reality for Mallee regions in Victoria and SA.

The recent string of frosts has touched up pulse crops, burning off flowers. There is a small amount of cereal damage but more concerning is the ongoing dry since the start of July.

Mildura-based agronomist Michael Moodie said there was a decent band of rain across the far north-west of Victoria as part of last week's system from the north, but said it did not extend far down into the state.

"There was rain of around 10-15mm through much of the Millewa, but it fell away very quickly to just a millimetre or so by the central Mallee."

He said legume crops in the area had been smashed by the frost, having generally been sown early and developed ahead of schedule due to the warm and wet autumn.

However, he said many growers regarded that as part of the risk with pulse crops in the region.

In the cereals, Mr Moodie said there was a reasonably substantial amount of stem frost through earlier crops, with some up to near head emergence, but said growers would wait three weeks to assess the full amount of damage.

NSW Farmers grains committee chairman Dan Cooper said there were falls of between 13-18mm through his area near West Wyalong, grading down to 10-15mm to his west, while some areas further north fared better.

"It has bought us some time, but we'll need rain before the end of the month, we've got canola and faba beans in full flower and they are starting to use more moisture."

Mr Cooper said there was no real sign of moisture stress in his area, which was also blessed with a dream start, but added it was only a week away.

In terms of frost damage, he said he had unconfirmed reports there was wide ranging damage to cereal crops through the western Riverina in areas such as Hillston, Griffith and into Coolamon.

In the north of NSW, Liverpool Plains grower Xavier Martin received 28mm, while there were falls of up to 40mm in his area.

"There's a big difference between getting 25mm and 50mm, those that got the lighter falls might not get the moisture to join up."

Mr Martin said the rain could best be described as a "breather, not a breaker".

"It buys us about three weeks," he said.

Crops on the Liverpool Plains are late enough, he said, that they are not chewing through the moisture as rapidly as to the west around Moree, but he said a good spring was critical.

"We'd need pretty much everything to go right from here on in to get an above average year.

"It's set up for a below average year here, and we've had the odd person put livestock on crops, but overall we're probably a bit better off than some of the earlier areas nearby."

Grain prices rallied on the back of last week's front, which was forecast to deliver 50-100mm to many parts of the Queensland and NSW cropping belt, but instead dumped the heaviest rain on NSW's South Coast.

Current official forecasts are for an Australian wheat crop of around 26 million tonnes, but while there are still large parts of WA, SA and Victoria in good condition, the dry August in southern regions, combined with the ongoing concerns in the north mean some analysts are considering revising the figure down in their next updates.

[SASKFARMER3]

Canada has SFA harvested for this time of year. Were 60 days away from first snow day. On our farm and a lot of farms Peas and Lentils are just getting harvested. Were one month behind.
Big yields my ass.

[malleefarmer]

A drier than average August in many parts of the country means spring rains will now be critical to ensure grain crops don't fail.

Many cropping regions in South Australia, Victoria, southern New South Wales and Western Australia recorded below average rainfall for the month of August.

Ron Storey, of Australian Crop Forecasters, says at the start of August, most crop growing regions had been on track to record average or better than average yields, but now the forecast for the national wheat crop is likely to be downgraded.

"There is probably not a crop in Australia at the moment that would not benefit from some rain," he said.

"What's critical about September is that the days get longer and warmer and therefore the crops need more moisture, the plant is ready to go.

"So this next two to three weeks really will be a knife edge for some crops.

"If they don't get rain at all, some of them will go back very, very rapidly and some of them may even fail."