Is it time...

[TOM4CWB]

Just went yesterday and reopened my trading account.

Is it prudent to buy back part of our crop sold at higher prices with call options?

Are the prices near the bottom right now?

Prudent risk management or a waste of time and money?

What do you think?

Cheers

[FarmRanger]

Now that you mention it, I'm thinking you may be right. Which commodity do you think has the highest potential for recovery?
I'm thinking they all have good potential for basis improvement, but you can't capture that with options.

[Oliver88]

Are you thinking wheat is close to a bottom?

[Klause]

Tom are we in agreement that we can see 6.50 for mgex wheat within the next 6 minths?

[charliep]

Likely a good time to do the paper work to set an account but I would be very patient on on a replacement strategy (even calls). The first step to this decision is a signal that market has stopped declining. We seem to be in a holding pattern/trading range but I am not sure there isn't another round of lower futures prices yet ahead. Looked at soybean oil and that chart ain't pretty.

[SASKFARMER3]

I think it is a good time I. Certain crops! To bad yellow peas don't trade, the elevators are screwing farmers on this crop! It's not nice and they know it !

[tmyrfield]

If you've already locked in a profit on sales why give some back to broker and writer? You are already long the market with this year's production on the way if you think prices are rising stay long. Anything else is pure speculation and can be rewarding. I find using options turns one tough decision (selling level) into 3 tough decisions. Selling level,buying option (strike and month) then selling option. IMHO that is why most options expire worthless. My opinion is Worth exactly what you paid for it!

[ado089]

I would be more tempted to sell call options I don't think we're at a bottom but I don't think calls would be in the money.

[seabass]

I believe it will grind lower yet before it recovers. Think if u need cash flow til christmas. 10 dollar canola still pretty good. Long run I hope we see a little more than that. Local elevator was offering 6.25 2 Red 13.5 last week.

[charliep]

If you look at the last USDA report, the increased production is coming out of the Russia and Ukraine. The geo political issues haven't impacted grain movement to any large extent but will need to be watched. There is real incentive for this part of the world to more wheat and barley to export sooner rather than later. An active fall sales program by FSU will keep pressure on wheat prices.

[Hopperbin]

Close that trading accou t and sell only what you have. Before you spend or throgh away more money. Go take a vacation.

[mcfarms]

Tom
On Charlies side here way to much wheat on the world and sure the EU has quality issues but unless things come right unglued in the Ukraine the bulk of the trade will go there we may see some increase in sales out the seaway to north Africa and I think Durum will be the shining star in the wheat complex this winter. on the bright side I sold most of the cwrs production on paper months ago and am sitting watching basis levels decline to more reasonable levels. ( yes charlie I did take that chance)

[blackpowder]

My two cents. As a producer, it is a very fine line between hedger and speculator.

[macdon02]

Lol look at a weekly wheat chart and a 60 min and tell me why you would go long? Short it till it proves you wrong. Long in the bin, long in the field, long next year and you want to Texas hedge?

[Hopalong]

Looking ahead to next year and wondering if prices will still encourage all out production.
In local area would not expect much cutback in acres or inputs.
After several years when it was possible to lock in profitable prices, have to consider what to do when they are not available.
Depend on AgriStability?