Wheat

[blackpowder]

So, everyone figures wheat yields pretty good this year. I debate that region wide but nonetheless.
If it's that good basis won't go much down from where it's at then? We've got -$50 here.
Move it shortly or store for several months?

[BreadWinner]

It isn't in the bin yet!!! Hail, heat, frost, rain at harvest, ergot, midge damage, black point, mildew, sprouts,to low protein,to high protein,the list goes on and on. Lots of things can happen yet.

[bucket]

A couple weeks with no rain, which is normal, will take more yield out than all the yield saving sprays most young bucks used and won't be realized until they get in the combine.

But hey, they spent the money, its guaranteed to be a bin buster. Or at least an input bill bin buster.

[blackpowder]

Oh, absolutely! But a previous thread had some thinking wheat was all good.
Most fields here u can see the rows. Canola standing straight up. Back to long term average I think. A very few like Tom have bumpers.

[wmoebis]

Prolonged heat at maturity can also lead to heat stress as a subjective factor degrading crops.

[farmaholic]

I need to rethink this "full meal deal" "super size me"attitude to crop inputs. Its hard on the bank account and risky. Then to have the Prarie Pirates grade it with the Hubbell telescope. Wheat looks good though, but esthetics of a crop in the field doesn't pay the bills, like you said, too much can go wrong yet before it is in the bin.

[farmaholic]

Aaaaa yes, the "subjective" grading factors.....if you can't measure it, f off with your "opinion". Not directed at you wmoebis.....

[mbdog]

you think movement/basis was tough on farmers last year....your wheat better be pristine this year. IMO too many want to maintain a feed glut. Will be like Santa...checking his list who was naughty or nice with the fungicides. Trapped.

[ajl]

Wheat marketing has two options: 1) light it on fire 2)build bins and store until there is a real production problem in the world sometime in 2017. Still have to point out to people that they are losing money on wheat.

[blackpowder]

That was insightful.

[farmaholic]

If that was directed at me, here is my grain(:-) plan. I will wait till I see "what" I have before pricing any new crop, old crop is all gone. Lock the basis in if you like but I am against making a commitment to one company before I know what I have and limiting my options to shop for a better grade or price if I don't like their price offer or grading. No incentive to sign price contracts on new crop spring wheat right now either. There again, not knowing what quality I will harvest and signing contracts with specific specs then delivering off spec, which is the highest likelyhood, will give them all the power to decide how big the penalty or reward will be(I keep playing that song from my broken record). Do what's best for your farm, we're all at different stages of the (rat)race.

[blackpowder]

No it wasn't directed at you. And no, I won't be signing anything for a while.
This thread started in my head as a response to the posters who suggested the wheat crop was awesome again this year.

[mbdog]

Ours rebounded from hell and recovered well...surprisingly...but 25% saw the cultivator of 80% seeded. I'm hearing pockets of good out there which is normal, but a lot more bad. We are on the fringe area of a largely affected area as defined by precipitation charts, so I'm just guessing our situation isn't unique. I suspect a good third of the wheat crop is only halfways to the bin. Little/no fungicide applied due to lateness of crop/20-30% unseeded acre area....which is not a unique situation this year. Crop generally long way from the bin, and yield loss potential greater than further gains going forward. Excluding last year, I think 3/4 potential of 2008-2012 avg....no where near last year. See down the rows here too on the good wheat....never crazy stooled like last year.
The manufactured carryover situation??is still hanging over our market, which will be played/potentially hurt producers post harvest...especially if you have a DD....and those who bought into the fungicide thing, may get some slack if quality issues become significant.
Hearing some reasonable basis offerings out there now. Either there's buyers emerging, production/quality/quantity issues...and/or NA wheat is simply to damn cheap given current circumstances. I'm inclined to not price futures at these levels... signing good basis likely less risky especially if you have blendable carryover. If you don't/can't meet specs, still think there's value/small downside risk in a good basis contract. I know it plays into the GC hands, but you can't fight the market. IMO

[TOM4CWB]

Blackpowder,

Wheat sales do not get done in the international market without many months of preparation and logistical co-operation.

If I need a 2014 Sept delivery of CWRS I needed to set this up in 2014April/May. This was only reasonable planning in an adverse marketing year with plenty of supply like 2014 is.

If we choose to understand those who are our eyes, ears, and feet in the international market place... the outcome will be much more profitable for all of us.

Jamming millions of tonnes into the marketing system globally assures prices collapse.

None of us need to push our system over the edge... we better serve everyone by planning ahead.

Cheers