Canola is their a great crop out their somewhere!

[SASKFARMER3]

I was on the road at the end of last week and did a drive from Canora to West of Medicine hat.
Sorry boys their are lots of not very nice canola crops out their. For every good one their are 10 WTF happened.
We all know our area is not very nice and now with the Hail that actually took fields that you don't know what was growing in it. They look like SMF. But the big shock on my trip west was how late the crop is that way. Flowering just really getting going now. Second week in July.
Yes Alberta has a awesome crop, Well at least that's what their telling the world and Markets. If I here one expert on the radio telling Joe public don't worry Crops have a way of recovering. Yea large brown out areas of the field with no crop do to flooding comes back. Get out of your office and try to walk to the other side of a quarter from the road and then maybe they would understand how bad they are.
If you have one of the largest areas of Canola production in Canada. PA to Stoon to Regina East and all this area was effected by flooding.
Lets do the math.
Field 160 acres that was 145 last year at 60 = 8700 bushels
This year start at 145 then the first rain down to 94 in the worst fields. Flat fields of high quality land between Regina and Moose jaw are in this category. So then a average 32 bus crop is 3008 bus.
Hm 8700 vs 3008. Ah can you say were not going to come even close to last years. Alberta is tapped at yield with last years crop, if they could repeat again. West Sask is late by two weeks compared to last year with heat on way.
Time will tell but I think I'm closer to reality than the Experts.

[bucket]

Sf3

Don't confuse the experts with numbers or reality of 2014 being a repeat of 2010.

[SASKFARMER3]

Bucket its a huge area that has shitty Canola. Peas lentils are also ugly. For us its a repeat of 2010 all over again. For you guys also. Like MB said head to the lake and go fishing its one of those years.
Ah shit cant fish in Qu'Appelle system because their is shit in the lakes thanks Regina and others.

[fjlip]

Experts/trade ALWAYS assumes trendline yields, that means increasing every year. They trade on that till the reality of the situation slaps them in the face. They will keep hoping for that till harvest is done and bushels counted, several times, before admitting less volumes sometimes in the Jan crop reports.
In our back yard only, not widespread, better areas OFFSET poor areas, decrease is only 3% but more acres means more volume, etc, etc! Must keep things positive to encourage consuming, unhappy farmers DO NOT buy stuff, then everybody else suffers.

[sumdumguy]

Yep. SF3 you are dead on the money. And Regina, shamefully managed. Building in that swamp called Harbour Landing when 6 miles East sits the most beautiful soil to build in with no flooding, heaving, sliding around in slime. Then an old sewer system that with 4 inches of rain in 3days spews millions of gallons of raw sewage into the QuAppelle River system. Now every cottage owner received warning. No money to fix the sewer, but we have $100 million, probably
$200 million on a stadium. That's our boys!

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes Regina is run buy idiots with hands in pockets. Build on sand of pilot butte all way to Balgonie. No keep trying to build on Gumbo dig rip turn pack level over and over and over. No wonder the city has the worlds smallest lots for huge dollars.
Yes FLIP we need to keep positive so every farmer keeps spending to keep the show going.

[agchat]

Nicest crops here are the guys who refuse to continuos crop and worked some ground once or twice last year.Will admit, some of my canola is by far more cabbaged and taller in the spots i worked last fall, even though they are now mostly under water after last week. Lets all go out and spend hundred fifty thousand on a vertical tillage tool so we can park it on the fenceline when the dry years return. Love this frickin game.

[SASKFARMER3]

On our farm Canola that was on Pea stubble or Beans or worked is better. It was out of the ground faster it grew better and was on way to do better but then mother nature threw another curve ball and hit it with hail. AH what a game.
But my one major observation is how late the canola crop is out West. Last year they were flowering and strong by farm progress show Friday or just starting to flower. This year their just in first week of flower Sunday. Ah that's two weeks later.

[sumdumguy]

I think Canola, Peas, Lentils's will not recover. From past experience, when the air can't get in around the roots, rot and disease destroy the vitality. That is why we quit rolling lentils long ago.

SF3, we were just doing those same calculations with friends last night. 1/2 the productive area left around here. Its quite a sight. The tops of the hills washed out, the sloughs drowned out so you
have this ring around like the hair on The Three
Stooges.

[SASKFARMER3]

Well that's funny because a few of us had a few wobbly pops the other day and the same conversation. Also some maybe don't realize if you have seen this shit before you know the out come and it isn't good. So the conversation turned to Crop insurance. Basically if you try to make your better fields better with a yield average calculation for crops getting to average spending money so no crop insurance isn't going to work. Throwing good money at a bad crop doesn't make sense.

[sk_wheatking]

Wtf sask3. How are guys like klause growing 80 bu. Pea crops in this? Most pea fields anywhere in Sask might do 8. Wait till his 55 canola pics. You would think that clearing $500 plus an acre every year guys like you would be clamoring to hire him as a consultant!

[sk_wheatking]

Wtf sask3. How are guys like klause growing 80 bu. Pea crops in this? Most pea fields anywhere in Sask might do 8. Wait till his 55 canola pics. You would think that clearing $500 plus an acre every year guys like you would be clamoring to hire him as a consultant!

[sk_wheatking]

Don't worry sask3 I don't think that the q appelle lake system is the only thing that's full of shit.

[ajl]

Here in south central AB the canola does look good but with no moisture in the forecast it is running out of gas. Flower blast is starting to show on the hilltops. That brings 50 bu canola down to 30 quickly so good thing there is carry out or the market will be short next spring.

[sk_wheatking]

Don't worry sask3 I don't think that the q appelle lake system is the only thing that's full of shit.