Statistic Canada Production Estimate

[sumdumguy]

Two farmers taking jabs at each other.
Funny story but true. JD guy laughing at Gleaner
guy over a beer.

One guy 3 yr-old JD cost 365,000, paying
$48,000 per year and annual dealership service
package cost $18,000. One break-down, 3 1/2
combining days waiting for dealer to fix.


Other guy 1998 Gleaner worth $40,000, paid for
long ago, no service, like this guy does not do a
thing. 2 break downs which he fixed himself, one
feeder chain and one rub bar, total downtime
11/4, which he fixed himself.

[sumdumguy]

Oh yeh, Gleaner total repair cost $200.

[SASKFARMER3]

"Export data was supportive for the
soybean market but more importantly it
was Stats Canada
numbers, which was negative 2 million
tonnes, that shows a degree of strength
in the oilseeds
complex," said Andrew Woodhouse, a
grains analyst at Advance Trading
Australasia.
"Corn and wheat are basically going
to hang around and wait for the USDA
numbers."
Statistics Canada said the canola
harvest was much smaller than farmers
expected and well below
last year's production, which could
shift some of the demand for the oilseed
to U.S. soybeans.

Yes you guys are right a smaller Canola
crop doesnt matter at all to the world.

Bull
SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[errolanderson]

Tom . . . the Cdn canola market doesn't
control its own destiny. Yesterday's
report was bullish the basis. But the
U.S. soy complex is the leader of our
pack.

Soybean exports are still very strong,
but corn exports are very poor. In fact,
China may be done buying corn this year.

Next week, it's USDA. Soybean yields
might be pushed above 40 bu/acre as
reports suggest much higher production.
Soybeans/canola likely to hold firm into
this report.

A side issue (which isn't a side issue)
Asia is swimming in palm oil stocks (the
largest cooking oil in the world). Palm
stocks may continue to swell into mid
winter which will tip the canola ship
unexpectedly from time to time (IMO).

Wheat remains driftless . . . Russia
issue appears off the radar screen.

[SASKFARMER3]

So explain ERROL why they guy from the USA
thought it did. WE lost 2 to 2.5 million
tons off our crop projections. DAH!

[errolanderson]

SF3 . . . if you just, just had one more
exclamation mark, you would have had me
convinced. So close . . . .

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol then explain what he is talking
about?
If our crop size doesn't matter. Because
if we would have grown a 18 mmt crop guess
what we would have had 10 to 12 this fall
and again would have heard the Canadian
crop size doesn't matter.

[wd9]

To be fair SF3, you can't say it doesn't
affect at all, but at 1% of the complex,
the effect is astoundingly small.

that said, local needs of crushers and
exporters can temporarily offer highs to
fill those needs. But overall, nope, not
much. We really don't matter.

[bucket]

I my years back at the farm I have heard alot of "lines" from the experts.

1. "If we had a lower canadian dollar our products would be worth more". Best prices in the last 10 years have been with a par dollar.

2. "Fertilizer prices are based off natural gas prices." Now according to another thread they are being based off the price of canola.

3. "Canada doesn't matter when it comes to grain". Funny, countries rely on our high quality to blend the rest of the world's shit into something.



You guys get the point, every year there is a new excuse as to why we, western canadian farmers, don't matter.

When Russia announces their export ban we will matter. I suspect November 1, 2012.

[boarderbloke]

I think I understand where SF3 is coming from.

Let's compare it to carrots.
Suppose a great portion of the market is made up of carrots with branched roots. We've all seen them in our garden from time to time, with two, three, or even four roots.(palm oil) You can still use them, it's a lot more work to clean up, but a store would never put them on the shelf to sell.(poorer quality) Another garden may have carrots that receiveed a good rain when you planted them, and every seed germainated, and when you didn't get them thined out quick enough, the roots from neighbouring plants causes them to be twisted growing against each other, not that they're branched, but they're just not straight as a carrot should be(mid quality veggie oil) We'll eat those too, and they may even be in some stores, but not in high end stores. Lastly you have a few gardens with nice straight carrots, not too thick, not long and skinny, but just as the high end quality market likes. It's a smaller market and not all can afford the premuim for them, although all would love to eat thoses nice carrots, many will have to settle for a lower quality.

I think SF3 would agree that canola is a small player in the Globel Veggie Oil Market, and many customers that come to the market for oil simply want to bring home the most liters of oil they can for a set amount of money. While others want the best oil to serve.
Is there a shortage of the very best oil in the world market? High end oil is a sub market that will trade on it's own FOR THOSE that will settle for nothing less.