Statistic Canada Production Estimate

[errolanderson]

See today's stats can report as bullish
the canola basis, but global veg oil
markets remain in steep decline. Canola
exports are likely to slip into winter
in an attempt to balance reduced supply.
ie: China.

Basis levels will likely be well above
the futures (Jan/Mar) in many locations.
We'll see if the futures bull sizzle can
last to the weekend.

bucket . . . more nonesence from
errolanderson

[fjlip]

vvalk, we also see 3 shiny combines and 3 shiny Macdon's across the fence on the poorest canola of all neighbors. Seeded by shiny 84' Seedhawks and shiny new 9560T.
No worries, that lineup is often seen in full color pictures in auction calendars.

[ado089]

1) I think canola number may even be a
little high yet.
2)The pea number is high!
3)Who cares if the neighbor is running new
machinery every year? Good for them for
making it work and if it doesn't it means
there will be more land for sale/rent and
more, next to new, machinery at auction.
Those are good things in my books, spend
away!

[boarderbloke]

Seems green peas got a little kick in the pants today too! High end offers for #2 greens up another $0.50 today, to $11.75, according to StatPub. Anyone know of a better breakdown on classes, yellows vs. greens vs. others for production &/or total supply available for this year compared to other years?
I'd have to think these are very high offers prior to "crop Production week" where often the best prices can be locked in.
Comments from experienced "Green growers" appreciated, How high can we go??? What alternative will industry turn to for substitution?

[dave4441]

Lentil number is still on the high side, guessing 200,000 MT too high. Canary number probaly on low side as it has for 3 years.

[mbratrud]

Dave
Do you really think Lentils are high? I'm not sure. Canary number bang on in my opinion. I think the tight Canary ending stocks might be for real this year!

[mbratrud]

Errol, Charlie

As far as veg complex is concerned I agree that will be an anchor.

Ideally IMHO the perfect storm will be for prices to continue soften to a non demand destructive range.

I agree Errol that basis levels will be a major contributor to higher Canola prices and Futures may be limited..... for now... Time will tell I guess

[furrowtickler]

Looks like our 1600ac of green peas should do ok.. Sold half at $10.50 off combine , no regrets whatso ever.

[dave4441]

I think that the lentil number does not really account for the loss in diseased lentil fields in the Rosetown Saskatoon Outlook Milden area. There are some really low yield fields there and a pretty major production zone. Just my feeling. Of course market is oversupplied anyways but long crops have short tails and i think that may be the case, just might not be relevant until next year.

Re canary, the estimate on ending stocks is 17000 MT. That in itself is impossible as the trade will have likely shipped 10000 in Aug (before new crop harvest so it is old crop) and has at least another 7000 MT in the system (i know cause i had 2000 MT in our plant). Grower price was 23-25 cents this summer and the above numbers mean the growers sold it to zero inventory. GUess there is at least another 30000 MT in store. That is the part i think is incorrect. Production is probaly understated somewhat but with such a small acreage it is hard to tell. In province tours this summer there was a definte drop in SE acres and pick up of acres in west central production zone due to late seeding. Hard to nail down the production, but carryover is out to lunch again. Gotta be getting to the end of this run though.

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie/Errol,

The growers on "2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?" called it VERY well.

I have a gut feeling... the 13.5mmt is still a hair high.

Aster Yellows got CWRS more than many are counting on as well.

Who would have guessed that something like this (Aster Yellows) would affect our industry to so catch us by surprise.

The trade knew MUCH more than they were letting on...

A wild one (Marketing) for this winter no doubt!

Cheers!