Statistic Canada Production Estimate

[bucket]

BTW here is some simple math I have been telling neighbors since spring.

18 miilion acres X 35 bpa = 630 (2011)

21 million acres X 30 bpa = 630 (2012)


Now throw in a bad start disease etc and you are lower than 2011.

Not bad calculating for a 2 cent calculator with a bad haircut, hey.

[mbratrud]

I Can't wait until we realize in December that we have moved 60% of the canola crop in 40% of the year... Then this spring what is going to happen when we realize that acreage growth for Canola in Western Canada has run its course? If it wasn't so damn dry I would ne excited for next year already!

[bucket]

Hey SF3 is pretty excited about next according to him on another thread.

But Canola acreage for 2013 is going down not up.

Guys with shiny new combines this year don't like being told their canola fields are netting them less than an ethanol wheat crop. Less fertilzer and spray costs and more time at the lake.

Big wheat acres for next year. I am sticking with my plan trying to get the rotations back to an easy seed program.

[vvalk]

bucket. what does shiney new combines have to do with anything?

[SASKFARMER3]

Canola will be down in 2013. No doubt.
Durum is the crop for 2013. Funny how HRS
is king this year. HRS hm our useless crop
that was a filler crop is now king.
Hm what a wonderful world.

[bucket]

vvalk

The guys with the shiny new combines were counting on big canola crops to pay for them. Now a couple of guys are saying they overspent. No shit, sherlock, 350 lbs on the canola for a 20 bpa and a new combine. Gotta hurt the pocket book.

[craig]

Good to see they lowered barley. In our area most barley was lower in yield than wheat. Would estimate 2/3 to 3/4 of normal.

[charliep]

mbratrud

Hope everyone reads your post. The only real market information in here. Others can fight about acreage but the real question is what has been sold. Strangely, it will have been in farmers best interest if the trade has forward booked on 15 MMT crop that ends up smaller. They are going to fight to meet their sales programs (oil and meal in the case of domestic crushers or export volumes in the case of grain companies).

Key pieces of information I will be following are the CGC Grain Statistics Weekly and the COPA Canola Board Crush Margin. Basis levels will also tell a story. The final piece in this puzzle is international vegetable oil prices (soybean and palm). Canola can demand a premium in some markets based on quality characturistics (low saturated fats/low transfats) but there is limit in many markets.

[Livewire]

Keep the bins locked yet boys. What the system
needs is a steady flow of product. I'd like to see it
squirm some more. Maybe they will start to
appreciate all the squirming farmers have to go
thru to produce it

[bucket]

charliep

If soybeans start to bounce back that will affect the complex as well??