Possible $20 beans?

[fjlip]

The global soybean prices may resume their rally and rise to as much as $20 per bushel in the next few months on tight supplies from major producing countries following erratic weather conditions, Thomas Mielke, ex-ecutive director of Hamburg-based journal Oil World, said Sunday.
The tightness is particularly severe in soybean world-wide," Mr. Mielke told a edible oil conference. World soybean supplies during this month and in February are ex-pected to be down by about 32 million tons from a year earlier due to severe drought conditions in south America and the U.S., he added.

[HappyFarmer]

Beans under 16 bucks today, not good news, who knows where they will stop. IMHO if S.A. what some big problems this winter it may get close, but today would say $20 beans is a long shot. Think $17 could have been the high.

[charliep]

Here is the full quote.

[URL="http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/soybeans/20-soybes-in-wks-oil-wld-says_10-ar26507"]Oil World[/URL]

Highlights to my way of thinking.

1) US soybean situation is excessively tight given the current pace of exports/domestic consumption. At least some likelihood the US will be an importer of South American soybeans next summer.

2) South America will start to seed soybeans over the next couple of weeks with the full window until January. Conditions going into seeding are better than last year but very early. Acres will be up as farmers respond to the price signals.

3) I note the discussion on palm oil and the discount to soybean oil. Also the comments on the weakening economic situation and impact on demand.

4) No comments on canola. Canadian canola will be tight - no doubt. The markets function is to maintain a steady flow of canola into the system (basically 1 million tonnes per month). The need to do this will create opportunities for those that are creative.

[samhill]

Likely traders and commercials selling beans right now
as prices are good. Counting on a huge SA crop to
provide supplies by March, and possible price decline.
Protect themselves with paper just in case.
USDA export inspections for beans running ahead of
last year, these are shipments, not just sales.
Canola following bean oil and palm maybe. JMO

[Hopperbin]

Charlie how is the canola meal situation? Is China not gobbling this stuff up for the dairy industry?

[charliep]

Great opportunities based on the expensive soybean meal. (China/not sure 100 % dairy, US west coast for dairy and heavan forbid domestically to just about everything that needs protein in the ration). Need to remember canola has less protein (36 % versus 46 % I think in soybean meal) and less energy (squeeze every last drop of oil out of canola). Not smart enough to know how protein by pass benefit gets valued in dairy rations. I value canola meal at about 70 % of soybean meal. Others may use a different number.

[charliep]

Way off the canola topic but feed peas are very close to edible peas in potential price based on nutrient value. With yellow peas, everyone should be doing their price net back to the bin and including things like adjusting for splits in edible samples. Warm up your calculator and shop the feed market. Will note the feed pea benchmark values peas at $315/tonne ($8.50/bu) based on its nutrient value in a ration relative to other feed ingredients.

[URL="http://www.pulse.ab.ca/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=xSgQbq8FeAo%3d&tabid=230 "]Feed Pea Benchmark[/URL]

[boarderbloke]

Soybean rust in Brazil may help beans along, in reaching $20.oo

[URL="http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Sep25_12-Soybean-Rust-Could-be-a-Big-Problem-in-Mato-Grosso-201213"]Rust in Mato Grosso[/URL]

[cottonpicken]

We need the trend to reverse now or your going to
see a big drop.

[furrowtickler]

The market will be at 10 before 20