Charlie, have we seen the top of canola prices?

[monte]

Just wondering what you are reading and thinking?

Seems like the market has decided oilseeds have seen the highs with the past few sessions trending downwards.

Thanks

[SASKFARMER3]

No! It's a shit show right to the last field. So if any
one thinks the USA crop is growing or the
Canadian is getting bigger keep smoking The
cheap stuff. Also it's a long time till brazil or
Argentina harvests.

[charliep]

I suspect we have put in our short term highs. The
market I suspect has built in the shortfalls in
production with only caveat you need to follow China
to determine whether they stay in the market or start
to back down. Soybean supplies remain tight and the
question is whether the job of rationing is happening.

Watch all the factors in the market. Basis levels.
Changes in volume and open interest. Charts.
Delivery and export activity. The market is going to
stay interesting and always be right at the end of day.

[bucket]

China is a master of market manipulation. Talk the market down to buy at lower prices.

I suspect they are getting close to a major purchase.

Russia did it in the 70s and I think china has pulled it off a couple of times since. The world is short grains and oilseeds. Too bad every Tom Dick and harry buys into the nonsense that china is in a recession.

Short crops in Russia ukraine brazil and the USA and where do the buyers go for their supplies????

Just asking but WTF is wrong with some people.

[monte]

Thanks guys.

We are still waiting to sell some crop and hope you are right.

I agree China is a player in the market, read yesterday they were selling some soybean reserves and doing a grain deal with Ukraine.

[charliep]

bucket

Check your facts. China has been in this market all
the way up. Will they keep buying? Maybe. The
market inverse on soybeans needs to be noticed.
There is a reason.

Only other comment is to use all the tools. Even if
you bullish the future, I would be following basis
levels and use them as a marketing signal. Lots of
tools in the tool box to participate in rallies.

[errolanderson]

The reason canola tanked again today has
nothing to do with SF3s sh.. show or
China manipulating the market. China's
economy is suckin air right now, they
are pulling from their reserves and
Malaysian palm oil was hammered
overnight.

This sell-off is originating from Asia.
Saskatchewan has nothing to do with
influencing this market direction . . .
sorry to say SF3.

The funds are starting to panio plain 'n
simple. Just take a look at crude oil


And the market doesn't have as secret
agenda as some on agriville seem to
think.

guys . . . there's a frickin global
financial disaster in-progress. If you
think canola is immune from it, think
again.

Errol

[furrowtickler]

errol, I am seeing the same thing now. Thinking of dumping everything - kinda. Way too much talk of $20 beans and $17 canola last week. When that shit happens and the price will go to the moon??? At harvest?? Not a good sign IMO

[hedgehog]

recession or not, china has to eat, or there will be big trouble.
they have cash, will purchase.

[ajl]

Government mismanagement of the economy
has screwed every nation on earth except
somehow the Chinese are immune to that.
China is in trouble too and that will
result in their diets reverting back to
what it was a few years back lessening
demand somewhat.