• You will need to login or register before you can post a message. If you already have an Agriville account login by clicking the login icon on the top right corner of the page. If you are a new user you will need to Register.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Mississippi River Dries Up

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Mississippi River Dries Up

    Mississippi River Dries Up As Food
    Prices Surge
    The worst drought in more than 50 years
    is having a devastating impact on the
    Mississippi River. The Mississippi has
    become very thin and very narrow, and if
    it keeps on dropping there is a very
    real possibility that all river traffic
    could get shut down. And considering the
    fact that approximately 60 percent of
    our grain (NYSEARCA:JJG), 22 percent of
    our oil (NYSEARCA:USO) and natural gas
    (NYSEARCA:UNG), and and one-fifth of our
    coal travel down the Mississippi River,
    that would be absolutely crippling for
    our economy. It has been estimated that
    if all Mississippi River traffic was
    stopped that it would cost the U.S.
    economy 300 million dollars a day. So
    far most of the media coverage of this
    historic drought has focused on the
    impact that it is having on farmers and
    ranchers, but the health of the
    Mississippi River is also absolutely
    crucial to the economic success of this
    nation, and right now the Mississippi is
    in incredibly bad shape. In some areas
    the river is already 20 feet below
    normal and the water is expected to
    continue to drop. If we have another 12
    months of weather ahead of us similar to
    what we have seen over the last 12
    months then the mighty Mississippi is
    going to be a complete and total
    disaster zone by this time next year.

    Most Americans simply do not understand
    how vitally important the Mississippi
    River is to all of us. If the
    Mississippi River continues drying up to
    the point where commercial travel is no
    longer possible, it would be an
    absolutely devastating blow to the U.S.
    economy.

    Unfortunately, vast stretches of the
    Mississippi are already dangerously low.
    The following is an excerpt from a
    transcript of a CNN report that aired on
    August 14th....
    You might think this is some kind of
    desert just outside of Memphis. It's
    not. I'm actually standing on the
    exposed bottom of the Mississippi River.
    That's how dramatic the drought impact
    is being felt here. Hard to believe, a
    year ago we were talking about record
    flooding. Now, they are worried about a
    new kind of record: a record low. The
    river was three miles wide here, it's
    now down to three tenths of a mile. And
    that's causing all kinds of problems.
    There are some benefits, I mean, take a
    look over here: new beach front. In
    fact, some quip that now the Mississippi
    River has more beaches than the entire
    state of Florida, which would be funny
    if it didn't have an impact on trade.

    A lot of stuff we use goes up and down
    the Mississippi River. We are talking
    steel, coal, ore, grain. The problem is
    now a lot of those barges have had to
    lighten their loads, and even doing
    that, they are still running aground.
    There is a real fear that there could be
    a possibility of closing the Mississippi
    River. If that happens, well, all that
    product that used to be carried cheaply
    by barge is now going to be carried more
    expensively by truck or train. And guess
    who is going to pay for all of that.
    You can see video footage of what is
    happening along the Mississippi right
    here.

    It really is amazing that last year we
    were talking about historic flooding
    along the Mississippi and this year we
    are talking about the Mississippi
    possibly drying up.

    As I mentioned earlier, there are some
    areas along the river that are already
    20 feet below normal levels. The
    following is from a recent article
    posted on inquisitr.com....

    Just outside of Memphis the river is 13
    feet below normal depth while the
    National Weather Service says Vicksburg,
    Mississippi is 20 feet below normal
    levels. Overall the Mississippi is 13
    feet below normal averages for this time
    of year.

    The drying up river is forcing barge,
    tugboat and towboat operators to
    navigate narrower and more shallow spots
    in the river, slowing their speeds as
    they pass dangerously close to one
    another. In some parts of the
    Mississippi the river is so narrow that
    one-way traffic is being utilized.
    A lot of barges have been forced to go
    with greatly reduced loads so that they
    will sit higher in the river, and other
    commercial craft have been forced to
    stop operating completely.

    For example, the Mississippi has dropped
    so low at this point that the famous
    American Queen Steamboat can no longer
    safely navigate the river.

    Down south, the Mississippi River has
    gotten so low that saltwater is actually
    starting to move upriver. The U.S. Army
    Corps of Engineers is fighting hard to
    keep that contained.

    Other waterways in the middle part of
    the country are in even worse shape.

    For example, a 100 mile stretch of the
    Platte River has already dried up.
    Millions of fish are dying as rivers and
    streams all over the country continue to
    get shallower and warmer as a result of
    the ongoing drought.

    The last time the condition of the
    Mississippi River was this bad was back
    in 1988. At that time, a lot of barge
    traffic was stopped completely and the
    shipping industry lost approximately a
    billion dollars.

    If a similar thing were to happen now,
    the consequences could potentially be
    far worse.

    As I wrote about recently, a standstill
    along the Mississippi would cost the
    U.S. economy about 300 million dollars a
    day.

    In fact, one towing company that works
    on the Mississippi says that it has
    already been losing about $500,000 a
    month since May.

    In the end, who is going to pay for all
    of this?

    In fact, this crisis could end up
    costing American consumers a whole lot
    of money....

    So here's the math. If you want to raise
    the average barge one inch above the
    water, you've got to take off 17-tons of
    cargo. To raise it a foot, you're
    talking 200 tons.

    And since, according to the American
    Waterways Operators, moving cargo by
    river is $11 a ton cheaper than by train
    or truck. The more that now has to be
    moved on land, well, the more the costs
    go up. Steven Barry says, "And,
    eventually, the consumer's gonna pay
    that price somewhere along the line."
    And considering the fact that we are
    already facing a potential food crisis
    due to the drought, the last thing we
    need is for the Mississippi River to dry
    up.

    So is there any hope on the horizon for
    the Mississippi?

    Unfortunately, things do not look
    promising.

    The fall and the winter are typically
    drier than the summer is along the
    Mississippi River. That means that
    conditions along the river could
    actually get even worse in the months
    ahead. The following is from a recent
    Time Magazine article....

    But without significant rainfall, which
    isn't in any long-range forecasts,
    things are likely to get worse. As
    summer turns to fall, the weather tends
    to get drier. Lower temperatures
    generally mean fewer thunderstorms and
    less rainfall.

    "Take away the thunderstorm mechanism
    and you run into more serious problems,"
    says Alex Sosnowski, expert senior
    meteorologist for AccuWeather.com. And
    while droughts tend to be a temporary
    setback, longer-range forecasts are
    troublesome. Sosnowski says he is
    anticipating an El Niño weather pattern
    next year, which would mean below-normal
    snowfall and above-average temperatures.
    Let us hope and pray that we don't see
    another 12 months similar to the 12
    months that we have just been through.

    The U.S. economy is already in bad
    enough shape.

    We don't need any more major problems on
    top of what we are already dealing with

    [link to www.sott.net]

    #2
    Another side note is the phosphate and urea that comes up the Mississippi out of season. I suggest to keep your eye on fertilizer prices because Agrium will move up first, followed by its canadian competitors if there is no competition from product that comes in through New Orleans that will not come north to Minneapolis where it is tranloaded and shipped into Manitoba and SE Sk.

    This may have a big impact on supply as well.

    Comment


      #3
      Wouldn't it be a logistical nightmare to all of a sudden
      switch to trucks and rail?

      Major delays at least.

      Comment


        #4
        Will be interested to look at the impact of this situation on grain flows and where used. Logistic challenges could limit exports out of the gulf and keep more corn/soybeans closer to home/available for domestic consumption. West Coast and perhaps heavan forbid east coast could become more relevant. Impact could be better export opportunities and prices out of Vancouver/Prince Rupert.

        The food versus feed issue will come to the forefront on wheat. Not suggesting but $10/bu corn as proposed by others. This would make the feed market a viable alternative for most of the high quality milling wheat produced this year.

        Comment


          #5
          What if drought in States maybe has some
          carryover nutrients as rumour say so may
          effect price of fertilizer but interest
          if Mississippi River shut down.

          Comment


            #6
            Isn't most of the fertilizer in the high use areas broadcast? If so, not sure how much testing is done and what the carryover would be after a dry year. Something tells me that at $8 /bu corn, they will still pump the fertilizer to it regardless of what might be there. Also, I believe gov't support programs will offset any cash shortfalls from smaller crop so they will have the money to buy. If the avg yield is down to 120 bu/ac x $8 = $960/ac gross....how bad will these guys really be suffering? I'm sure that will cover most costs so how bad financially will the "drought of the century" be for these guys?

            Comment

            • Reply to this Thread
            • Return to Topic List
            Working...