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Huge canola crop

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    #11
    I've covered much of northern Saskatchewan in
    the last month going to wedding in Llyodminister
    Weat freedom day in Kindersley and a funeral
    yesterday in Carrot River.

    FWIW I'll start with what's freshest in my mind.
    Water is flowing in the ditches all along Hwy 5
    from Wakaw to Tisdale and when you get to
    Carrot River the water seems to be flowing from
    slough to slough. More summerfallow than I've
    seen in a longtime.Cousin showed me a pic
    where I thought he had driven into a dugout. Crop
    insurance fr the last month on 50% of acres. Guys
    stopped spending money a month ago. Early
    oats seem to be good??
    We took a different route home through Nipawin
    IMO crops looking much better there. I think they
    are scathing to early, but they've been growing
    canoa since it was ****seed so what do I know?

    Rosetown to Kindersley is also "very wet" not like
    Tisdale but wet for them. Lentils will be in tough
    canola is Fubar. Again crop insurance will lose
    money in Sk. Only guys that make money on CI
    weren't putting anything into it anyways.

    Davidson to North Battleford are best crops in my
    travels. We have started harvest with fall rye. All
    in 47 bpa with calibrated combines much better
    than I expected. Early peas less than 45 but tis
    was on a gravel pit sand pile. Started on the
    Ptarmagin SWWW so far 67bpa I was hoping for
    more, some spots going over 80. Durum is
    looking good lentils look good canola is better
    than average, yet scorotinia has taken a toll and
    we won't know until combines roll.
    I am bullish commodities but we have also been
    selling to meet early commitments and cashing
    up. $6.00 Rye at Belle Plaine pays bills. $8.00
    peas in town off the combine little tough = no
    headaches.

    I think supply demand says hold it all but when
    the Globe and mail is talking up commodities and
    CBC is looking for comments, I see shades of
    2008 rope ladder up and free fall down.
    Oh well can't store it all anyways.
    safe harvest all!

    Comment


      #12
      I agree with GustG. The prices have profit in
      them. Sell something. The shaky world
      economics, or a few bushels yield over
      expectations will dissolve prices real quick.
      Industry just hates to pay farmers profitable
      prices. It takes away from their profits and that
      won't happen for long.
      I am bullish but 21 years of farming has turned me
      into a jaded, skeptical, small thinker. Exactly what
      I said I would not be when I started!!!

      Comment


        #13
        I agree with GustG. The prices have profit in
        them. Sell something. The shaky world
        economics, or a few bushels yield over
        expectations will dissolve prices real quick.
        Industry just hates to pay farmers profitable
        prices. It takes away from their profits and that
        won't happen for long.
        I am bullish but 21 years of farming has turned me
        into a jaded, skeptical, small thinker. Exactly what
        I said I would not be when I started!!!

        Comment


          #14
          Ive got my fall sales in place for canola,
          HRS and Peas. Dump in pit and gone. Peas
          were really tough yesterday and now lots
          of Ducks and Geese. A machine gun would be
          nice. Cleaned of 30 acres on one field.

          Comment


            #15
            Gustgd. Good point on the Globe and Mail and CBC.

            When the Butcher, the Baker, and the Candlestick Maker, are all talking commodities up, it's time to get out.

            Comment


              #16
              wd9 . . . do you think the Chinese care?

              Comment


                #17
                Errol,

                I don't have the numbers in front of me, but what has China's purchasing pattern of canola over the last 24 months been?

                Comment


                  #18
                  You asked Errol but I looked at the CGC Exports of Canadian Grain and Flour.

                  In 2009/10, China bought about 1.1 MMT of canola by the end of December versus a total program of 2.9 MMT that year.

                  In 2011/12, China only bought 400,000 tonnes in the first 5 months of the crop year versus total imports of 2 MMT.

                  In the current crop year, China had bought 950,000 tonnes versus 2.5 MMT to the end of June (July still not released).

                  Comment


                    #19
                    OOps. The 3rd paragraph refers to 2010/11.

                    Comment


                      #20
                      Anyone notice soybean exports above
                      expectations. Demand destruction hasn't even
                      begun in soybeans.

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