Canola Prices Getting pounded this morning!

[SASKFARMER3]

Rockpile Ill see what my schedule looks
like! Right now Calgary might be changed.

[charliep]

SK3

Just curious. What is your number on expected
Canadian canola production?

20 million acres and 33 bushels per acre is 15 million
tonnes. This is about a 5 year average.

Trim 10 percent off yields and you have af 13.5
million tonne crop. 30 bu/acre ish.

An average is made up of the crops you are talking
about as well as some of the better crops in Alberta.
Not perfect (hail plus other issues) but pretty good
for the most part.

I would watch what has been sold this fall and what
moves. In some sense you should hope the trade has
sold a big canola crop - it has the priority and they
will fight to keep it moving including aggressive basis
levels. Watch what moves/is being asked for by grain
companies.

[mbratrud]

I have certainly seen fields devistated a kinds of disease, it is really hard to quantify. As well as pockets of dryness. Heard of Barley coming off down here in the SE at 45 BPA and 40lbs per bushel. Seeded early, great stand but no rain in July. I think we are headed to at least an average crop, but I agree that there will be some disapointment out there.

Look at it this way SF3, if you are right a healthy set back in prices is not a bad thing. If demand destruction does not occur this thing will eventially come roaring back. With the World economic woes still lingering though it is a mighty big roll of the dice to be overly bullish here.

Interesting times indeed....

[mbratrud]

Charlie, I really think hitting 16MMT and actually will not be a stretch this year. If i was going to pin point I would choose 16.2 MMT as my number. Despite the fact there is going to be some disapointment because of disease and heat blast, trend yield will still be there. But does it really matter if we have 15 or 16 MMT?

[SASKFARMER3]

14,426,000. THeir charlie is my number Ill
give what I think is out their. Now if Im
wrong it will be alberta has a way better
crop than Im thinking.

[tipsy]

Charliep, I'll a give you my thoughts on my travels thru Sask. in the last ten days or so. There is no doubt there are 20 plus million acres of canola planted. Imo this years crop is not as good as last year. As of today I'm guesing with the larger acres and smaller crop we'll harvest 15.5-16 mmt of production. There are some good crops, but, for what ever reason I have not seen so many fields of poor to very poor canola around the country as this year. Just my .02, anyway's we'll find out shortly..

[charliep]

mbratrud

I agree. Western Canada sold 15.8 million tonnes in 2011/12. No problem repeating in 2012/13. How much canola is on the books for fall sales (export and domestic)? How big a China program? The million dollar question. They are the wild card.

[riders2010]

I think one of the factors being overlooked besides the damage severity from flooding, disease and insects is the 20% or so that is very late seeded and still just blooming, regular frost dates could be critical.

[mbratrud]

I would bet a Steak supper we will
export a record amount of Canola in
October this year. Stab in the Dark
would be 3MMT by Dec. And Crushers well
barring some disaster will be screaming
ahead full blast. I would guess 3MMT of
this crop is already on the books maybe
3.5 50/50 Export/Dom. Others thoughts?

[johnsmith]

Read it and weep boys and girls. South of Winnipeg, east side of the red river, no flood this spring first time in 15yrs. W Wht 90-100, Hrs 70plus in the bin, Canola 30-35 half in bin, too hot and has pepper for the dockage fight, Soy crop is to die for, 40-50 and if a little more rain 50 plus. Estimate of course.