guru cotton, errol, charlie

[malleefarmer]

my target for next round of sales havent
done any for 2 weeks and only doing very
small licks is 8.80 corn, and yes i grow
wheat and canola but once corn tops
everything will follow it down or am i
in fact wrong and focus should be on
beans as the market driver, once corn
runs out of gas then corn will follow
beans?

geez if canadian or aussie dollar was at
80 cents rather than 1.04 it would be
wow time, a month ago currency experts
said aussie was headed for 90 cents by
dec now they say 1.10.

ps my gut feel is australia will still
have average or just slightly below not
that it matters one iota in the scheme
of things

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

DTN has become more and more bullish
Wheat.
There is more and more talk about the
FSU block short wheat... Exports to be
way down.
India monsoon short, talk of a short
precipitation year in Au.

I am selling as we see production become
secure, I think the prudent way to
market... Or cover off with puts if
there is that good of prices to cover
the risk in this volatile marketplace.

I personally would not be short... Look
at the gold to corn or wheat ratios.

Pumping money into the financial system
will have a great impact on future
commodity Prices.
I don't think they are done.
China and India are addicted to, which
will drive this further.

But what do I know... I am just a.
Dumb grain farmer who has never marketed
any wheat or barley... Yet... (maybe
after. Aug. 1...
Grin;
Cheers!

[charliep]

Not a guru. Just a student like everyone
else. Picking a top will just about be
impossible. My two bits.

Selling at record prices can never be a
bad thing if it fits with a farms
marketing and financial plan. I wouldn't
have a problem with pulling the trigger
on some portion of expected crop
production.

If you want to ride the market, have a
process (likely based on the charts) has
topped. I like the idea of running
trailing stops.

In Canada, you would be following basis
as well. Volatile markets sometimes mean
a $20 futures rally gets eaten by a
wider basis.

If you are willing to spend the money,
some type of minimum price contract can
be a good tool (options or grain
company).

Have a market plan with prices, actions
and the discipline to act when targets
are achieved. Doing nothing should be as
much of a conscious decision as one to
sign a contract/price.

Agree that oilseeds have better legs to
hold current prices/move higher.

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

just thinking...

In a sellers market... timing is EVERYTHING as the buyers want our products.

In a buyers market... the shoe is on the other foot... growers are at the mercy of when the buyer want the product.

Hence the CWB conundrum... Western CDN growers were ALWAYS in a buyers market... as the 'single desk' stopped growers from connecting directly with end users... and the CWB would hold stocks at no cost to customers... at the growers expense... often to be delivered at much lower prices.

Have we entered a 'new' paradigm?

NOT likely. BUT finding a good home for future production usually pays well. Pricing can then be a timing thing... not at the mercy of the buyer.

Just a thought...

[BTO_farmall]

ALL this BullShit Talk of Losing Steam, Short Crop/Long Tail, Demand Destruction, is just that, BullShit TALK, Takes Money to Buy The Whiskey. There ain't No God Damn Grain left in The Country, So what Corn gonna drop $1.00 Per Bushel, HAHAHAHA!!!!!! These prices are here to stay 4while, WHY???? Demand Rationing, Corn @ $6, EVERYONES a Buyer, Corn @ $10, Not So Much. Get wit The Times, er Get Left Behind, About That Simple Too............

[cottonpicken]

As some here know,i was never surprised when corn
first went to 8 and wheat and beans bla,bla,bla.

But corn going over 8 now does surprise me,based on
technicals trading range etc,etc.

So i have to take Mrs.Rands advice,if indeed i'm in
contradiction,and check my premise's.

If corn does what it did in the early seventies with the
triple spike then everything is normal.

If we blast to 12 or higher,we aint in kansas toto.

Time will tell.

Beans and wheat seem to look like less downside risk.

Another amazing thing is the sheer volume going on
in these markets compared to the past.

[BTO_farmall]

Word on The Street is The Specualtors have yet to Enter This Market!!!!!!! These Markets got a One Way Flight Booked To The Moon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!