Ethanol dead?

[MarshallDillon]

I dunno, but if corn hits 10 bucks I figure Obama will step in and scale back the mandate. Maybe it won't matter as every ethanol plant in the U.S. will be shut down.
Any farmer that thinks $9 corn is good for his business hasn't seen anything yet. I am going to book all my fertilizer by next week becuase I see $1/lbs. nitrogen as just a warm up. My costs could increase by $100.00 per acre next year, a combination of rent and fertilizer-seed.
Can we really be in for a perminent price reset ony 4 years after getting the last one? Let's see: Black Sea drought, S.A. drought, U.S. drought. Hmmn? What if crops are all just average around the world next year? We are being set up for really bad decision-making on the farm. The go-go 70's really killed us in the '80's. Well, here we go-go again.

[ajl]

If we do get good production then the air
will come out of the balloon fast. We
went from $8 durum from the 08 crop to $4
durum in 09 with high costs. I see much
the same happening this time around.

[hedgehog]

09 was an over correction as spec funds dried up after 08.
the world is a lot more crowded since the eightes surplus days.
in 73 the usa stopped soya exports to europe, that is why the EU started big subsidies for canola and grains.
personally i reckon the top is some way off.

[ASRG]

marshall dillon: I expect you have read it pretty well!
They boys in the boardrooms of the ag input companies are probably drooling all over themselves thinking about how much they can put prices up!

[hobbyfrmr]

You guys are correct. The input suppliers will
have their hand in your pocket very soon. They
will increase prices well before the grain rally
and well after they go down. Industry is ready
to profit heavily from this next rally.

[SASKFARMER3]

We're going to get it big time.

[Horse]

Soooo dont any of you high production farmers think about cutting imputs a little and forcing an real or percieved shortage and therefore mabey mantaining higher prices?
That seems to work for the imput supliers. I know a 50 bu bly crop looks pretty puny but the bottom line may be just as good.

[mbratrud]

I have no problem supporting retailers in the US Midwest if it makes sense. I'm sure they will be hungry for some business if the locals get to rammy.

[bucket]

Ok here is the question.

If you fertilize for 166 bpa and grow 50
bpa. How much fertilizer have you used
and how much is left in the soil.

Now do the math on higher prices.

[hobbyfrmr]

I spend more on my employees salaries than I
spend on fertilizer and herbicides.

[MarshallDillon]

Good point bucket. But importers will import to order, just as last year when US farmers played chicken with the fertililzer boys, not ordering until the last minute. Farmers lost.

[TOM4CWB]

MD,

Do you expect the global warming folks
to stop the greenhouse gas re Co2 that
they are convinced is bad and causing
climate change?

I really doubt it.

Look at NASCAR and how proud US folks
are of this most popular sport in the
US. Ethanol based now.

[ajl]

Most of the corn crop has accumulated the
applied fertilizer in the stalk already
so there will not be much left over even
if they did not harvest a single bushel.
So the N will have to do a full cycle
through organic matter before it is
available again. So I see demand
remaining fairly steady. We may see some
producers cut back due to cash flow
problems.

[BTO_farmall]

Marshall, Why is Cash Rent Going Up????? What is The Current Cash Rent in The Area???? What is The Most yous are Willing to Pay per Acre to Keep The Land?????

[MarshallDillon]

Well BTO, it's like this: land is 3000.00 per acre supposedly, and at 3% that's 90 bucks plus 7 for taxes and wha-la, you have $100/acre rent where it was 50 bucks last year. My buddy has been renting land for 36 years off the same family and it sold for $3200/acre and the chick in charge of renting it out for the mutual fund hit him up for a hun initially. Generally rents went up to 60 this year, and it will take 80 next year. Mine is for rent at $125 and I told a Hutterite boss that he would have to start growing corn to afford this new rent. Corn in Nov-Dec usually, mind you. "Irrational exuberance". I rest my case.
ps. not a F@@@ing hope in hell to pay for it and make money but for the love of farming itself, lol!