the brutality of corn

[errolanderson]

Skyrocketing corn prices may have
growers thrilled, but this rally is now
taking a heavy toll in other sectors of
the industry.

Apparently, U.S. feedlots are now losing
more than $230 per head on unhedged
cattle. In Canada, losses exceeding $250
are heard.

Ethanol production is falling
dramatically. In fact, the U.S. may make
changes to their ethanol mandate. It is
likely more economical for oil companies
to pay government fines than produce the
ethanol.

Japan (the largest corm importer) has
indicated they will slash corn imports
dramatically. More wheat will be fed.

IMO $8/bu corn may be a breaking point
in this market. Economics are now
failing.

Errol

[hedgehog]

whats the difference if japan feeds wheat instead? its even dearer.

[cottonpicken]

Cornpocalpyse and Beanggedon

80 billion buys the us corn crop

8 billion dollars a day is spent on oil

[mcfarms]

Erorrl ( spelling is wrong on purpose)

Is your glass ever half full?

[BTO_farmall]

All This Hot Air coming from Error, Keep er' Spewin, Blow These Markets even Higher!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[blackpowder]

Thank you Errol for trying to inject some caution into chronically bullish farmers.

[mcfarms]

Inject caution is that what it is?
We all know the general economy is sluggish, we know the issues in China,
the one thing we still don't really get is this drought in the US is according to some numbers I've seen the worse since 1934 otherwise MY father was 1 year old the last time it was this bad. NO ONE knows what these prices will do yes there will be demand destruction yes there will be sales lost but there is inelastic demand and we are not yet even at prices for some of these grains that we saw as recently as last crop year so all this doom and gloom is just like Mike Campbell on any given Saturday morning. pick a position and stick with it eventually he'll be ight and then He'll say I told you so. IN the meantime he's been wrong for months now lets hear him say that for a change, cause he is looking at macro's but I really don't think he understand's the scope of what is happening, simply put this weather event will trump all macros because it is that overwhelming.
Can we make money at these levels?, yes. should we make some sales?,Maybe Should we price everything before it gets harvested? Not on your bloody life. Should you be buying out of the money puts? maybe, thats up too you.
And maybe I am curently bullish where I was actually bearish in the spring due to all the MAcro factors and the potential for the US to have a big crop but game changer going on down there.
And besides if you're are in Primary Ag and your not an optomistic and eternally bullish why are you farming? Really?.
So why that I'll go back to hauling the canola I sold last week and feel really really bad about it,
Maybe I should donate it?

Heres a thought what if SA now has a wreck?

[blackpowder]

Well you may be right, but take a pill anyway.

[mcfarms]

Well lets hear your perception of the situation Blackpowder or are you just good at sniping from behind cover?

[jensend]

of course all the bulls on here knew there would be a drought the likes of which hasn't been seen for the last seventy years. beware the short crop with the long tail.

[fjlip]

What if the world is has many short crops?

[hedgehog]

if the 1973 scenario is replayed, when the russians covered up their crop failure, as some agencies seem to be copying re the usa drought, prices could triple to new levels unseen before.
in 1973 wheat went from £30 to £100 in 3 months so i am told.
repeat that today and wheat will be $20/bu

[ASRG]

Maybe Harper, Obama, and Cameron should cap the price.....for the "public good" of course?

[cottonpicken]

What was a dollar worth 70 years ago..mmm..and
wasn't it made of silver..convertible to gold at 20-no
wait 35 to 1 and corn was how much a bushel..and
todays value...let me check my numbers...no wait i
must have..screwed a decimal place or 2...

[oneoff]

Grain prices will go to levels to where they go to.
Wouldn't it e just too bad if farmers actually made some real profits in this price spike event. Just remember that someone will; and I'm pulling for some relatively huge farmers profits for those who happen to have the ohysical product. Do't sell yourself short; just because industry spokespersons are trying to talk things down.

Remember the bumper corn crop that North America was to produce (last spring) and now the same BS about a South American crop that probably hasn't quite been sown yet.

Inject some farmer's instincts in your marketing decisions too.