Anyone Selling Canola?

[ado089]

Is anyone selling into this rally or are
we waiting? If so what is that magic
price? I started selling Jan at $610
and and will sell more every $15 until I
hit 20bu/ac sold. Also sitting on a
$570 option for another 10bu/ac from
before seeding, good thing it was cheap.
Still waiting for 9-50 Minni wheat.
Does a guy sell at what is a really good
price or sit on it while the drought in
the US plays out?

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSX12"]November canola[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZSX12">November soybeans</a>

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLZ12">December soybean oil</a>

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWZ12"]December MGEX Wheat[/URL]

[charliep]

CWB deferred delivery price (indication).

Effective time: 12:09 PM, July 6, 2012
Grade: Vancouver #1 CWRS 13.5
Delivery month: December 2012
Deferred price: $366.64/tonne $9.98/bu.

The prices provided above are for information purposes only. All grain prices that are provided above may be changed or withdrawn by CWB at any time and without prior notice. Deferred delivery contracts must be locked in by a CWB grain handling partner. Grain prices agreed to between CWB and a producer are subject to the terms and conditions of the applicable program agreements. Prices quoted do not apply to grain to be shipped by producer car.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/"]CWB[/URL]

[ado089]

What is a price indicator and how can I monetize it? I will sell $10/bu wheat all
day long.

[charliep]

Just a note a Vancouver price so you still need to knock off $1.50 or so of deductions. Don't know what an indicator price is either except you have to have the conversation and they will put a bid price in front of you. Prices elsewhere (couple of places I check) are in $8.50 to $8.80/bu range for 1CWRS 13.5. My sources are limited as most companies have customer only/password protected websites.

[ado089]

Our basis levels seem to be out of whack
compared to the US right now. Best I can
find is 80 FOB Washington. We are -20
FOB Vancouver. HMMM? Funny how 100 miles
and an invisible line can make such a big
difference.

[charliep]

Just checked what we will put out in the weekly today and Portland is USD $9.88/bu or 80 cents over. Great Falls is USD $8.65/bu.

[charliep]

The $8.50 to $8.80/bu is an Alberta elevator bid for 1CWRS 13.5 by the way. We aren't that far off the elevator prices our neighbors to the south are being bid.

[charliep]

Three posts in a row is too much but is interesting to watch the evolution to the new world of cash market based prices versus pooled prices/price differentiation. It would appear at this point (lots to happen) is the western Canadian market is lining up with the US.

[charliep]

Oops. I see there are differences between the Futures and CWB Basis Tab (where you got your information from) and the Deferred Delivery tab. Not sure the difference.

[charliep]

More looking and sorting out what the CWB prices mean. The futures ($9.34) were July 5 - had not been updated for today's close. The basis is $20.60 over. If you add basis to the converted MGEX futures ($343.21), you get close to the deferred delivery contract (not exactly the $366.64). A bit math challenged at times.

[wd9]

Ok simple question. Charlie and Errol, you
say this is a 'weather' market, however
the corn and soy situation with dry
weather in the US is a very real tragedy.

At what point, and i'm thinking its this
next week, does the weather market become
a reality on the reduced crop in the US?
From what i've been hearing, its a dire
situation.

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

I note when at Viterra on Thursday... my Viterra FBR told me they were ONLY going to accept CWB grain that was headed for the Pool Accounts in the next crop year...2012-13.

NO FLAT PRICED CWB deliveries next crop year... Not sure how many other grain co's are this way... check and find out.

The Viterra offer was over $8.90/bu local NE Alberta August 1 2012 Delivery #1CWRS 13.5.

[silverback]

What kind of deductions off of that Tom?