China - Europe - Walmart - Mexico Oh,Oh

**bucket** · Apr 23, 2012, 07:25

Don't forget the statscan report coming up.

**SASKFARMER3** · Apr 23, 2012, 07:30

Yea thats a market killer every year.

**errolanderson** · Apr 23, 2012, 08:07

These are Reuters pre-report trade average
guess as per survey of traders.

Canola 20.6 million acres
Barley 7.7
Oats 3.4
Peas 3.1
Durum 4.5
All Wheat 23.4
Flax 0.925

**hobbyfrmr** · Apr 23, 2012, 08:17

For once I agree with SF3. Canadian statscan
reports are market killers.

**Wheatking** · Apr 23, 2012, 08:18

No way canola is over 20. I guess 19.5-
20. I am not saying that is what is going
in the ground, just that there is no way
stats can comes out with a number above 20

**bucket** · Apr 23, 2012, 10:11

18 x 35 = 630

21 x 30 = 630

More acres, less bpa considering the soil maps. If I was an end user 15 bucks a bushel is a bargain right now for canola.

**dave4441** · Apr 23, 2012, 10:39

Have not seen anyone that is bearish at all on new crop canola even with 20 million acres. Does that mean it is time to short it???????????

**errolanderson** · Apr 23, 2012, 10:48

Here's an interesting option that traded
today.

Jan canola $580 puts traded @ $25/MT.
Great time value and price protection.

$580 strike - $25 premium = $555/MT
($12.60/bu)- plus or minus your late fall
delivered basis.

**wd9** · Apr 23, 2012, 17:55

50 pounds of canola in a bushel. Oil to
seed ratio is 2.4. 50 over 2.4 is 21
pounds of oil per bushel.

2.4 tonnes of canola makes a tonne of
oil or roughly 1100 litres of oil. $600
a tonne seed times 2.4 costs $1440 to
make a tonne of oil or roughly $1.20 a
litre to make after crush. Less meal
sale and its about $1.10 a litre.

So even at todays price its still half
the price or less of a bottle of evian
water.

So can the smart ones here tell me how
much is too much for a bushel of canola?

China - Europe - Walmart - Mexico Oh,Oh