Ok Canola Basis is Zero In Eastern Sask, Are all the Bins Empty

[SASKFARMER3]

Local Terminal Went to Zero Basis
yesterday in Eastern Sask. No Not the
Crushers in Yorkton the elevator.
So took the Basis off the July and will
liquidate 70% of my Remaining Canola.
Will leave the 30% for playing summer
weather market.
Delivered over half already. Now here is
the funny thing, We filled most of the
contract. All the Big hitters in our
area liquidated Nov,Dec, Jan. The bins
are empty for miles.
So demand is still their and inventory
is way down.
Will their be 22 million acres, Hell no
the grain companies etc can spout all
they want but their is no way that
number will be reached. The 19 or 18.7
will hit the mark. Acreage wont do it.
So now weather. Here is something to
start thinking about. Fires in SW
saskatchewan, HM its wet out their boys.
HA HA. Ok you cant plant Canola for at
least 30 to 45 Days, If the weather
patern we have now continues how much
drying will take place from now till
seeding. Remember this isnt normal right
now. So if you seed in April you might
be reseeding in May. If your bone dry
will you be seeding Canola. Crop
insurance only pays on established crops
not sitting in dust crops.
So does Canola have more upside. I say
yes but Stats Canada will probably screw
it up first.
Have a great weekend.

[SASKFARMER3]

If your using trend lines is 630 the next
top?

[SASKFARMER3]

Also can get 10 or better for your heated
Canola!

[fjlip]

Quote from Agtalk on corn soybeans,

"It would appear we have a demand rally, coupled with a technical rally, coupled with possible supply problems, also coupled with a dollar rally. It doesn't get much more bullish than that."

Weather wild card, 500 record temps set in US on Wed. Similar here. CBC said temps are close to those in the 1930's!

[cottonpicken]

The major resistance is here and now,619 then 650
are weaker looking lines to me,then 700,then the
money maker 744,we breach that and there is no
resistance.

Exciting days.

imho nia dyodd

[cottonpicken]

Imo,we are at a sell some point,first one since may
2011.

[grrrr]

And 6 weeks ago all the experts were predicting a downtrend.

[T.N.T.]

Thats why i don't listen to most of them,most of them are as good at there job as the weather man is at predicting the weather!!

[charliep]

Oilseeds are a demand lead rally. Having said, I would be cautious in getting too bullish. Have a plan and execute on it when targets are achieved. Buy puts. Run a trailing stop behind a market that is rallying. Use good basis to sell and replace with futures. Watch for spreads between futures months (carry versus inverse). Pay attention to volumes and open interest.

My favorite expressions.

Bull markets need to get fed everyday.

Bull markets have long tails.

[BTO_farmall]

Thats what happens when Yous listen to WannaBe Marketeers like FarmDinkAll Solutions, Ain't got No Skin in The Game, Theys work fer The Multis. Now We's rallyin and Yous got **** All in The Bins. Shit, Bin Positive Basis here so long, Can't remember it not Bein. Drought 2012 is Encroaching, Ridin this One Out, Will Catch The Top............

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree cotton that's why I did the sale 20 min turn
around. No line up.
Charlie all winter farmers who talk to farmers in
SA. Had a good idea it wasn't a normal summer
down their.
Now yes we never lost a crop in march, but I'm at
foam lake today and even their the snow is gone.
Selling some 2002 shit.

[errolanderson]

agree with Charlie on this one . . . stay
disciplined with your marketing. there is
no way at selling at the top without a lot
of luck.

Take a look at cattle . . . 2 weeks ago
this market was bulletproof.

errol

[charliep]

Issues in South are the reason we have mid $13/bu soybean futures, 55 cent/lb soyoil and $600/tonne canola. Still discussion about how big the crop but I think old news. China has been stepping up to the plate to get covered over the remainder of 2012 but they are finnicky at best and will eventually get covered to the point they want. At some point you are going to hit a demand vacuum.

You pays your money and takes your chances. BTO says he can sell at the top. Just curious how anyone knows where the top is. I'm interested in the mechanics of making money in a farm business with marketing one of the tools.

[errolanderson]

Technically, canola and soybeans are
heavily overbought. Ironically, at this
market blow-off stage, it will now take a
price drop to encourage farm pricing and
deliveries.

Errol

[SASKFARMER3]

Boys "Charlie and Errol" I said I had a plan, yes
the market is now priced in for SA. But all winter I
heard its a big crop. Canada on paper right now
will have a huge crop. Oh yea all of western
Canada won't seed for another 30 days and 18
above today, long time to dry out the ground if the
weather patern holds. You can't seed boys today
and hope to get a crop. Yes you can't always get
the top but if you always leave your self tight on
your margins and believe all the hypebynow BS,
yea you'll be long sold.
Are not western Canadian farmers bins empty?