Beef Market Pressure

[errolanderson]

This has been a tough week for the
wholesale beef market. U.S. slaughter
numbers have jumped this week and there
is simply too much beef hitting the
market right now. Exports have also
eased.

Pushing beef prices higher at the
supermarket may have a nasty consumer
backlash.

The cattle board appears to have broken.
Texas Panhandle testing a record
$130/cwt last week might dip toward
$125/cwt fairly quickly.

Also, news that China's slowing growth
may trigger a hard economic landing,
also plays into the North American
cattle market.

Errol

[Happytrails]

We can't say you didn't warn us Errol. However in this game you not only have to be right, your timing has to be right. I've come the the conclusion that staying on top of the market is too big of a job to add to my other jobs.

BTW I have still got my entire 2011 calf crop which I would like to market in the next few months. How do you tell when this correction bottoms out? HT

That is aside from the week I pull the trigger. lol

[GreenValley]

HT, US packer may be mark up meat by 10
percent which shock to customers and
less consumption, I don't know if it
hold true.

http://www.earth-
policy.org/data_highlights/2012/highligh
ts25

[GreenValley]

HT, US packer may be mark up meat by 10
percent which shock to customers and
less consumption, I don't know if it
hold true.

http://www.earth-
policy.org/data_highlights/2012/highligh
ts25

[errolanderson]

Happytrails . . . as you can tell, my
timing is fairly brutal.We can see
market factors from a distance, but
can't predict when they will converge to
change market direction.

Your question is a tough one. To me, the
cattle board is fairly overbought,
particularly feeder cattle. Technical
selling might punish this market, if the
funds panic out. Sense that there is at
least a $5 drop in the U.S. cash cattle
market.

My question to people a lot smarter than
me is this the top of the cattle market?
Not sure about this one, but I believe
these prices warrant price risk
protection.

Errol

[BTO_farmall]

Eddie, I woulda put some pounds on the calves straight off the cow, then sold in January, Got to Greedy, Shoulda taken The Money and Ran, Money ain't a Joke, Yall don't really, Yall don't really, Yall don't really hear me tho............

[Happytrails]

Thanks Errol but I can't see putting a hedge on now at 155 even tho it might be the smart thing to do. Am going to wait for a rising market if I can.

BTO hindsight is 20/20. Didn't get fully weaned until just b4 new year. My idea is that you either sell a calf right off the cow or you own him 60 days more. So here I am. Guess we will see how it works out. HT

[rockpile]

What in the H is the "cattle board"?

[parsley]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/03/09/
pink-slime-product-spreads-to-burgers.html

[errolanderson]

May be a rocky start to the cattle
market this week. Number of factors may
come forward.

1. Showlist didn't sell out last week.
2. Spiking U.S. gasoline prices will cut
into disposable income.
3. China has a big trade deficit . . .
one of many ahead.
4.Hams and loin prices are under selling
pressure.
5. live and feeder cattle technical
chart damage.

Interesting week for cash cattle ahead.

Errol

[errolanderson]

big problems in the cattle board. live and
feeder cattle under heavy selling pressure
and the 100-day moving average has broke.

big supplies of meat and heavily
overbought technicals a concern. cash
cattle bids may be down sharply later this
week. cash protection suggested.

errol