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Cdn Dollar Overvalued?

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  • errolanderson
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2012
    • 3127

    Cdn Dollar Overvalued?

    It appears that the U.S. government is
    trying their darndest to cool the U.S.
    dollar in an effort to stimulate exports
    right now. This has contributed in-part
    to the spot loonie surging above parity.

    In my opinion (for what its worth), the
    Cdn dollar now appears overvalued which
    is contrary to some banker and financial
    industry thinking. My take is that
    commodities are now overall deflationary
    (a market swear word). Albeit, cattle
    and land prices do not fit this category
    just yet. Canada's burgeoning personal
    and government debt problems remain
    largely off the global radar screen, but
    not forever.

    Believe loonie may be susceptible to a
    swift pullback if equities suddenly
    change course.

    What are some opinions on this out
    there?

    Errol
  • Cattleman
    Senior Member
    • Oct 2004
    • 251

    #2
    I am sort of thinking the same thing. I thought our dollar would be safely below par for a while due to the problems in Europe. It almost feels like Europe is becoming old news, and people are willing to take a little more risk - just because. Hence Euro is up a bit, and US dollar index down. To me Europe still a mess - look at Greece, and Portugal is on a slimilar slope. These plays in the market are frustrating at times, but these markets are the market.

    I think that shorter term we are in for some deflationary pressure, longer term could be another story.

    Comment

    • cottonpicken
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2006
      • 6993

      #3
      A small short term pull back maybe,medium term
      rally to1.10 possible,long term up.

      Comment

      • Hopperbin
        Senior Member
        • Dec 2007
        • 6562

        #4
        Oil up 2 dollars
        gold up 23
        Silver up 57
        And my advisor said to buy american dollars when we were at 98 cents.

        Comment

        • monte
          Senior Member
          • Feb 2000
          • 209

          #5
          Who the hell knows what any currency is worth these days. Canada does not need it to go much higher to make it worth alot less than the USD.

          Comment

          • Hopperbin
            Senior Member
            • Dec 2007
            • 6562

            #6
            Just wondering how exactly does the US gov't try to cool the USA dollar? In most of our Canadian Liberal past we were buying our Canadian dollars to prop up our dollar to slow our economy.
            From Sask. was not really sure why we needed to slow the economy down at the time.

            Comment

            • errolanderson
              Senior Member
              • Jan 2012
              • 3127

              #7
              There are again rumblings about more
              U.S. Fed money printing (QE3) by
              Bernanke. These rumblings actually
              supported the Dow today. Flooding the
              market with more U.S. dollars would
              pressure the U.S. dollar at least for a
              while.

              Personally, feel this is not good long-
              term policy for the U.S. as it could
              create short-term gain with long-term
              pain. Think Bernanke understands these
              risks, but politics are likely talking.

              U.S. is in a worsening and massive
              financial mess despite recent employment
              gains. Market bumps ahead seen . . . .

              Errol

              Comment

              • rhoff
                Senior Member
                • Oct 2006
                • 175

                #8
                I think more risk appetite among investors globally means money leaving U.S gov't debt and moving into riskier assets-which will likely mean Our dollar goes up.I think QE3 is off the table because of last weeks jobs report.

                Comment

                • errolanderson
                  Senior Member
                  • Jan 2012
                  • 3127

                  #9
                  Last Friday's U.S. employment report
                  showing another drop in unemployment was
                  exceptionally squeaky clean. It is, what
                  it is. But the U.S. appears to be
                  forgetting to count an awful lot of
                  Americans that have given up looking for
                  work.

                  Unemployment is far higher than what the
                  U.S. government reports.

                  Errol

                  Comment

                  • cottonpicken
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2006
                    • 6993

                    #10
                    I think its qe forever.

                    If you want a zero interest rate policy,who is going to
                    buy those bonds?

                    Who is going to fund the never ending deficits of the
                    federal government?

                    Comment

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