Uncertain commodity week ahead

[errolanderson]

This may be an interesting week
commodity-wise. European banks remain at
high risk. The Greek situation is dire,
with Portugal and Italy on the doorstep
of financial abyss as well.

Expect a possible sharp setback in crude
oil sometime soon which could ripple
right into grain markets ie: corn and
canola.

Canadian dollar would be vulnerable to
its own version of a meltdown.

Don't want to alarm, but what to make
you aware of some market bump potential
fairly soon.

Errol

[checking]

The market Sunday - Monday agrees, yet what happens when Iran stops selling oil to Europe this week?

[errolanderson]

The Saudi's would be more than willing to
replace lost Iranian oil business to
Europe. And if they try to block the
Strait of Hormoz, the U.S. would likely
turn Iran's battleships into ashtrays
fairly quickly.

Note: Argentine weather is now old news.
Oilseeds appear vulnerable to a price
drop.

[malta]

Impossible market to figure out with the world economy on one side and the supply demand struggle on the other. This year has been one of good prices leading to good profits. I like the philosophy that says ,the bears make money, the bulls make money and the pigs get slaughtered.

[checking]

Good answer.

It should mean that the EU never needed six months to switch its energy supply.

[cottonpicken]

Something is happening.

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?jav=adv&vol=Y&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym= ZNH2&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv


Canadian dollar meltdown is not one of them.

[errolanderson]

Canadian dollar will be affected on whether commodities are inflationary or deflationary.

The majority (including the banks) are on the inflationary bandwagon. My opinion (for what it's worth) is that commodities are on a deflationary path. That is the big difference in our opinion and will determine where the loonie will be come spring.

Deflation will create a loonie that will angle below 95 cents U.S. Inflation would trigger the loonie to move above parity. The market is always right and time will tell.

In my opinion, deflation in commodities is a real risk as inevitable global credit deleveraging takes place over the next few years.

Cdn housing will likely feel this reality very soon.

Errol

[cottonpicken]

The fact that the credit default swap market is about
to be torpedoed makes your analysis wrong.

[VK58]

As long as there is 2 sides to this debate you will have a market to either buy or sell into, either side abandons their position then look out.