2012 crop

[Klause]

% sold.....


I'm thinking it may be time to sell some 2012 crop
for fall delivery. Specifically, flax, canola, and wheat.

Your thoughts?

I'm afraid of a downturn in June-July if we have a
good growing season... Plus the EU and US debt
crisis... I think shit is gonna hit the fan in the US.

[bucket]

I don't know the crop is not seeded yet and the acreage battle in western canada will be interesting.

If its dry, someone is going to have to bid canola up to get 20 plus million acres. How else will they get the required tonnes. They are short going into August.

If the flax bids don't increase that crop won't make 350,000 acres this year.

The wet acres in the east are probably earmarked for canola over flax just because flax has lost too much of its premium. And with all the other issues canola will make more sense there.

Take some acres away from canola to grow durum or wheat and its tight.

Some guys will grow cereals to straighten out tight rotations.

[furrowtickler]

How much actual canola is grown in the far south east? South and east of Estavan

[Klause]

A LOT in the Pilot Mound / Virden area...


Basically, until you hit the red river valley around
Winkler, it's canola wheat... then it's corn, beans,
canola and some wheat.

[skip]

Klaus,

I am not sure there is a good answer on flax?

Canola and wheat, if we get big global wheat and oilseed crops, the fall prices could look pretty poor compared to today.

I am wondering along the same lines as you, do you lock in a some of the 2012 grain now in the case the fall prices are much lower.

What are you more experienced guys doing?

[furrowtickler]

Should do 20% canola soon if any major snow is forcast for western Sask eastern Alberta. If no moisture is in any forcast hold out. JMO

[$short]

60% of my canola is priced with put options.
Nothing else priced but looking at doing some
wheat.

[Hopperbin]

Bunge and ADM at 10.72 Vittera at 10.59 basis pretty wide so maybe large crop is worked into the price already.
Do me a favor Klause put a sell order in at 11.20 and let me know it hits.

[Hopperbin]

A 15 basis on Nov.'s close works out to 11.16 per bushel

[Hopperbin]

Last year this time for sept del 13 bucks was availlable. Anyone got any info on next years demand and crush capacity?

[Klause]

Hopperbin, was told $11.30 hit today...

I can make a profit at $9.50... so I'm tempted to lock
in a bit... then again, maybe lock more in with put
options... Hmmm I'll sleep on it.


Sorry I didn't call.... we got carried away cleaning this
appartment... and Darcy's parents are gonna be here
in 15 minutes.

[rhoff]

I read one analyst who says that with dryness in
Ukraine and south America we should be able to
seed 20 mil acres and still be in a demand pull
scenario. Which to me seems rather bulish
because I have a hard time seeing how we are
going to get to 20 mil acres of canola. Every
other crop pencils well enough to keep guys from
pushing rotations.

[bgmb]

I am waiting for at least 12 to start pricing canola.

Locking in HRS makes me nervous due to the fact you can't lock in grade or protein spreads so I will likely end up binning all me wheat.

[fjlip]

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- ****seed production globally will trail demand in the 2012-13 marketing year as dry weather in the European Union and Ukraine limits crop prospects, Oil World said.

Ukraine’s output will fall 19 percent to 1.13 million metric tons, the Hamburg-based oilseed researcher said today in a report. That’d be the lowest in five years, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. EU production will gain 4.1 percent to 19.9 million tons after producers harvested the least in three years in 2011-12, Oil World said. The EU will have to import more to meet demand, according to the report.

“An unusually large share of the planted winter ****seed did not germinate well and will be abandoned, primarily in Ukraine,” Oil World said today. Dry weather “will keep EU import requirements of ****seed and canola very high in the 2012-13 season.”

****seed futures on ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg have declined 12 percent in the past year. Output in Canada, the single-largest grower of canola, will gain 3.8 percent to 14.7 million tons, Oil World said.

World production of ****seed and canola, a low-acid variety of the oilseed, may total 61.5 million tons in the 2012-13 marketing year, up 3.4 percent from the prior 12 months, the first increase in three years, Oil World said. Because of small opening stockpiles, which are down 20 percent to 5.1 million tons, total supply of ****seed will lag consumption, the researcher said.

“Considering the current poor winter ****seed crop conditions in Ukraine and the sizable decline in winter ****seed plantings in the EU-27 as well as the prospective low world stocks of ****seed and canola in June and July 2012, a further increase in Canadian canola production will be required to satisfy demand in 2012,” the researcher said.

[hobbyfrmr]

Wait for $ 9.80/bushel canola then pull the trigger.