Derailment

[jackspratwhynot]

The CPR line east of Oxbow is a little bit impassable today. An just after a rail line rehabilitation project involving neww ties and crossings. A traffic accident apparently caused the derailment of twenty or so oil tanker cars. Suffice it to say that the heavy truck traffic in the adjoining quarter section of farm land would make any oil rig move pale in comparison. Does anyone know whether these rail cars were loaded; and what direction they were travelling?.

Apparently tomorrow night the CPR will again tell the City of Estevan Council that they will utilize their CPR rail sidings within the City limits as they see fit. And the CNR is not reportedly on the best of terms, with even the RM of Browning over the operation of the oil rail facility at Willmar Sask.

It seems to be very bad timing to be in the midst of cleaning up a rerailment some 45 miles east (between Oxbow and Glen Ewen. Sask.) and getting an earful from Estevan fire departments and City Council.
On the other hand the Estevan Mercury conducted a poll and I believe the figure was well over 60% of those surveyed saw no problem with CPR's Estevan oil tranfilling plans.
Go figure.

[jackspratwhynot]

Would it make any difference to the majority of the electorate in the City of Estevan if they saw pictures of the Oxbow derailment before tomorrow nights Council meeting.
Would it influence the opinion of the majority if they understood what are now considered manageable growth rates are dooming society to doubling requirements for resources (multiple times) over a single human lifetime.
And how many comprehend that in the span of each doubling period (eg. 7.2 years at a 10% growth rate); there is more of that resource required to be found and consumed; than was used in all previous lifetimes combined.

IT'S AN UNDENIABLE FACT OF SIMPLE MATHEMATICS that can not be denied or circumvented. And yet we strive for unsustainable growth, and remain ignorant of the consequences.

[ColevilleH2S]

You are talking out of your rear end, and here is why;


Don`t get math mixed-up with a free economy. The free world economy does not travel (consume resources) in a linear fashion. Just like the German Blitzkrieg of WW2, if it comes up against a strong hold of resistance (like a shortage of Copper lets say) it will just by pass it (eg. switch to plastic for home and commercial plumbing).

People have been fear mongering about the end of Oil for as long as I can remember. It has not happened, and will not happen. There will always be oil in the ground, it`s just how much are you willing to pay for it. A free economy will force efficiency to be improved and alternatives to be found. The only thing that will prevent this from occurring are do-gooder governments meddling with the process.

[jackspratwhynot]

Just what is there to slow such demand as world oil consumption growing at current rates or greater. And do you not see pipeline capacity having to double at least every ten years or so.

What is missed is that when you get the earth up to half full capacity; the next doubling makes it three quarters full; while the next increase in the same time period gives full capacity. Then the next increase means you need two worlds; then 4 worlds. You get the picture; or not?
Keeping ones head in the sand may even work for your generation; but is there not some obligation to a much longer time frame?

[ColevilleH2S]

What is this "capacity" you talk about? Can you put an number to it? I think it is a thing of fiction.

For example; My land once averaged 25bus/ac wheat crops. Now it produces 55-65bus. wheat crops. How did that happen? Efficient motivated management and some help from technology.

Another example; Only a short six years ago the oilfield in this neck-of-the-woods was considered a dying field. Wells were being abandoned or turned into swab-holes. A new technology called "Horizontal drilling/ multi-stage frac" comes along and the once "depleted" field is now producing more oil and gas than it ever did at it's peak in the 1980s.

The human mind is a powerful thing. It is amazing what it can accomplish when it is MOTIVATED. I sleep well at night knowing that if there is money to be made by it, any problem can be solved. Even the mythical Population bomb.

[jackspratwhynot]

I'm going to turn this over to Tom4CWB. This same debate was waged several monthsago. Unfortunately I can't direct you to the thread; because the search function appears to only go back a couple of months.

However at that time; readers were directed to a series of excellent you tube type lessons from an older emminent mathematics professor. For those who missed the concept in their school years; it would be wise to learn what "2 to the nth power minus one" means to growth rates of population; crude oil demand, crop production; financial instruments; electrical power generation, debt etc. etc. etc. You will soon gather that human ingenuity; new found resources and supplies can't possibly keep up with increase in consumption.
Don't shoot the messengers. Spend your time attempting to understand a mathematical fact of life as it pertains to constant growth.
I sure hope someone has that link to the series of videos which I found to be highly intriguing.

[ColevilleH2S]

Don't worry, I passed all of my algebra and calculus classes in school and I've seen the video. I know what an X% of growth means over time. My point was, economic growth doesn't mean exponential growth of the consumption of old-school commodities. Look at oil use in North America since the mid-nineties. It is treading flat or going down. Human ingenuity and efficiency is the reason.

Many examples;
-How many watts did it take to light a 900 lumen light bulb in 1985. How many now?

-What was the average fuel consumption per mile of a family car in 1975? And now?

-How many BTUs did it take to heat a 1000sq.ft house in 1955? And now?

-How much food was thrown out in 1915 because of the lack of household refrigeration?

-What was the percentage of farmland was used to feed beasts of burden in 1905?

The world will become more and more efficient as scarcities present themselves.

[cottonpicken]

exponential functional

my baby

it should roll off tbe tip of your
tongue like 2 2

but you are a retard

[jackspratwhynot]

Lets consider the old bottle of bacteria example (doubling their numbers every 20 minutes). Plotted on logarithmic paper there would be a somewhat straight line that some confuse as linear growth. But it is anything but linear (being only what appears as a straight line on logarithmic paper). Linear growth is where you pick a base year and the volume is say 5% greater the next year. The following year you ar up to 10% greater than the base year and so on. Back to the bottle...

The majority of observers will strongly believe that there were hundreds or even thousands of generations required to get to the present level (say 1/2 full for example). If they would think back to an employers offer to pay 1 cent the first day and double the wage each day; what would you be receiving as a wage at the end of 30 days. Then they call in their common sense and conclude that things will certainly get out of control shortly after, or before a mere 30 itinerations.

Read that unmaneageable; unless you have many more bottles or "earths" ready to expand into.
So some of the smartest of the observers of this bottle experiment will comment that man's ingenuity can solve having the bottle ever reaching full capacity. For example; recycling will be proposed.
All the bacteria, more than one generation old will be taken out (so that their reproduction will not add to now recognized explosive growth problem; and their recycled nutrients will solve the raw material shortage), and the problem will be solved... right ....or not? Sorry but that gains "breathing space" for another 20 minutes; and then the numbers are back to the same magnitude.
Next cottonpicken will be called in to call the messenger a "retard". That will surely solve the "bacteria bottle problem". He will so thoroughly disgust a number of observers that they will lose interest in following the story of what is happening in the bottle; and with the now apparent lack of public concern, there will be little attention for the next 20 minutes at least. There's even the possibility that the messengers will say to hell with the situation.

The outcome may well be a foregone conclusion anyway.
Thanks cotton; that was real helpful and super intelligent too.

[jackspratwhynot]

Cole.... billions of other souls are exponentially gaining the ability to see the "Good life" enjoyed by those such as ourselves. And they have and will have the same asparations as we who have been born into lives of extravagance and material goods that everyone on the face of the eath will wish to personally obtain for themselves. Do you personally believe that there is enough of everything to go around; and for well into the future?

[jackspratwhynot]

Remember that your solutions need to be permanent, defencable; and able to be applied to growth at what ever the demand might be. Further; you assume acountabilty and the responsibility for any part of the outcome of any of your actions.

[ColevilleH2S]

My answer in one word, Capitalism.