new crop wheat bids

[jamesb]

the elevators, while nice to see new crop wheat bids to price wheat the way we would price canola for movement off the combine, however I dont like the notion off pricing with out clear indications what the deductions are for wheat under spec or for that matter bonuses for over spec. The way I see it they can do what ever they want if nothing is on paper. RISKY.

[BreadWinner]

You could always grow the wheat then market it once you know the grade and quality. We have used this policy in the past and it has worked well for us it is just hard to get cashflow off the combine using this method.

[LEP]

I decided to only contract a small amount for now
and only in November so that I have a handle on
what the quality of grain that I have to offer.

I think that the discounts and premiums will
standardize over time between companies, but
that remains to be seen.

[bucket]

Its one thing to offer bids but not to have the dicounts and premiums is a bit of a deal breaker.

I'm going to wait for all the players to come in, including the cwb.

I'm expecting the cwb with their 60 years of experience to have a good handle on the discount/premium and basis levels. That should make them competetive and maybe if their traditional customers stick with them better prices for later delivery.

I say this because durum and wheat has been accepted and called early. This makes me think some of their customers needs are full for some time. If the cwb played this right, they could be sitting back letting all the harvest grain get moved and come back in for their customers and better prices.

Just playing devils advocate but there are lots of liberals in the cwb camp and their strategy is smoke and mirrors.

[bucket]

Besides the cwb doesn't have to bid too much to get wheat and durum.

The prices by Viterra are not attractive given the shortage of high quality wheat in the world. Also considering Weber's daily report of DNS prices, there should be some upside to bids in the future.IMHO.

Australia's crop is getting rained on and South America is bone dry for pollination of the corn crop.

[Burbert]

Duhhhhh! That's the way we'll market 2.
Wait and see. Ifn no good, whinning and
snivelling will getter done. Gobermont
deserves ta be on the hook after recent
brainyake intervention in markeering in
Comedia......

[dave4441]

What options did you have under the CWB? A pro that was built on pure speculation Burbert. That worked well. It will take some time for this stuff to work itself out.

[bucket]

burbert

The cwb was not keeping pace with farmer's needs. A perfect example of not being able to send final payments earlier. No reason in this day and age that farmers should wait 6 months after the pool is closed to square up.

I think the cwb has a tremendous opportunity, they just have to speed up full payment.

The cwb has customers, they have support from you, and they should have a way of out smarting the competition. You have been telling us that for years, how good a job they do.

Now they can show us the money.

Its that simple.

[katoe]

Final payments would be out earlier if the feds would approve them quicker.Dragging their feet to make the cwb look bad.Grade 2 politics.

[jamesb]

here is the discounts for a ND elevator


Cash Prices Up Fourth Day -- Modestly







DTN Early Word Grains 12/23 07:18







DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/23 11:48







DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/23 13:58







DTN Cattle Close/Trends ...







DTN Early Word Opening Livestock ...







DTN Midday Livestock Comments ...







DTN Closing Livestock Comments ...







DTN Chart Technical Points ...







DTN Feeder Pig Index
























SPRING WHEAT : Protein Scale - 7cent/quarter down from 14: 2cent 1/5 up to 15pro.
DON: No Discount
TW : -.02 under 58lbs
FN: Under 300 -.05 each 25 pts
DMG: -.02 each % over 1 Dmg



At least a guys knows where he is at

[malleefarmer]

bucket australia is has a mountain of exportable h1 and h2 wheat thats 13% plus protien and h2 is 11.5% to 13%.

Personally i sold i out of h1 a few weeks back and price has come of about $30 fromthe highs and h2 has come of maybe $40 from its highs.

Alot of farmers have stopped selling and await a return of higher prices in the next 6 months myself im hoping for a spike in jan 9 usda report and further troubles to lift prices in feb/march period will sell more old crop and a parcel of new crop wheat and maybe canola.

doesnt matter at the moment 1 there are the eu factors affecting wheat prices plus there is a mount everest of wheat just at the moment, i was hoping for a inflationary spike soon maybe cotton can give some of his thoughts on what may or maynot happen

[cottonpicken]

I believe what happens in the eu is steering the
markets right now.

I dont know how its going to shake out.

The latest news is the ecb has stepped in rescently
to purchase some italian bonds,the yields went to
7% and that is unacceptable.Do they have the
capacity to infinitly expand their balance sheet?

This is quantitative easing which i believed would
happen,which is very bullish inflationary event.

Will it continue?I dont know.

Mr.Bass believes it wont because germany is not
stupid,so a write down has to take place now
because the number that needs to be printed is so
high......2.7 trillion of eu debt is rolling over this
year....if he is right this is a deflationary event with
some major short/medium term problems for us.

The huge some of capital that is flying into u s
treasuries,bidding yields down to 0.00% is very
disturbing.

So many variables and access to good information
is making predictions very tough.

IMHO NIA DYODD

In my humble opinion not investment advice do
your own due diligence