land prices

[hedgehog]

will land prices rise in western canada since the you will now recieve the full value for wheat?
will the market get flooded?

[poorboy]

Land prices were on the sharp rise in Western Canada anyway due to the last few years of good crops and good prices. Will be hard to tell if the CWB gone is going to have much influence as world trade fluctuates a lot.

Over time we may see major shifts in where wheat is grown. If trucking incentives disappear, it will not be as profitable further from the terminal (may drop land price even).

If we start shipping grain on the US river system, then places like Southern Saskatchewan may see cheape freight rates than by rail to the west coast and that may increase the price of land. Also areas that can truck to the US elevators may see a land price increase also.

Hard to say what the future will look like, but there will be some areas that will benefit greatly and others that will lose. I can't see a reason to keep Churchill open.

[mustardman]

You may expect a 30%-40 % increase in freight rates from our 2 friends who run the railroad. Now that the cwb watchdog has been Neutered.

[wilagro]

mustardman: They don't care...they now have MARKETING FREEDUMB and they know how to negotiate freight rates using their HOME COMPUTER.
Ahahahahahahahahahhahahahhhaahahha

[bucket]

mustard


The CWB never got us lower freight rates. They had a conflict of interest in owning rail cars and thinking they could lower freight rates. Our rates never went down, they said they made us money and you bought the line - hook line and sinker!

The system will probably work more efficiently now that the clowns in winnipeg are out of the picture.

[farmaholic]

Intangible value?????????
Hopefully the baby hasn't been thrown out with the bath water!!
I doubt there will be a Pheonix that rises from the ashes of the CWB. It will smolder for a while till it finally goes out. Too bad this thing didn't morph into something that would have suited all earlier, is that saying it won't now??
I doubt it.

[farmaholic]

Anyone know the per tonne cost of shipping a unit train of canola versus CWB wheat? Would be an interesting comparison.

[freewheat]

Mustard fellow, any neutering that occured is self imposed. Even your good buddy Pat Martin says so. He said a beaver will bite off its own balls in Parliament. Just as the cwb G-8 decided was their best course.

[farmaholic]

My apologies, how the hell did I get to the above two posts from the original question. I don't think land prices will rise due to marketing freedom. Cereals don't make the same contribution to our margin as the special crops we grow. I would hate to think where we would be if we hadn't started growing high value specialty crops. Basis levels will widen and narrow to indicate proper contract/delivery time for cereals.

[TOM4CWB]

Farmaholic,

I agree the price of cereals will be unlikely to change land prices much vs. the 'single desk'/Choice issue.

As FarmLink advised wisely at Westock... wheat prices will rise and drop... the volatility will likely be greater without the CWB pro influence...

But CWB was so quick to lower prices/the pro... while rises in the PRO occured at a snails pace.

Now the western Canadian crop price 'pool' will be spread over a much more risk management diverse and stable base... instead of growers holding the vast majority of the risk as they did with CWB pools... which even determined flat prices.

US growers have 'pooled' wheat prices in the basis portion... and this cross transfers wealth to some extent during the marketing period.