Negative markets....

[furrowtickler]

Is the market going to punish those unsold bus for not selling into the bull market this fall. Remember canola stayed relativly strong through harvest and only recently started to presure down until today/ this afternoon even though there was a good harvest and good yields off big acres. Or just a knee jerk reaction to USDA negative soy numbers? Or bolth?

[SASKFARMER3]

Did I not say Friday was the beginning leg lower.

[craig]

I was looking at stats canada production report and decided to do a few calculations. Here are the percentages of the total for western Canada that apply to each province in both acreage and tonnes produced.
Spring wheat (acres) Manitoba 12.8%
Saskatchewan 48.18% Alberta 39.1%
Barley (acres) Manitoba 5.65 % Saskatchewan 36.16% Alberta 58.19% Done on a per tonne basis
Spring Wheat(tonnes) Manitoba 10.77% Saskatchewan 43.79% Alberta 45.44% barley(tonnes) Manitoba 3.6% Saskatchewan 33.64 % Alberta 62.76%
If we now look at wheat board districts we can see that Manitoba has basically 2 districts, Saskatchewan 5 and Alberta 3 . I classed the 2 districts crossing borders as a half each. I will leave you to do the rest of the math. Reality comes as no surprise. If districts were based on an acre of production or a tonne produced we would see a much different outcome.

[Hopperbin]

Yield higher than reported. Farmers like me wanting to sell before yearend. Have patience.

[furrowtickler]

Yep you did, I thought the USDA would not be so negative soy but alas it is. Sold wed what I had in store. Now will have to wait till mid March or 1st part June.

[SASKFARMER3]

9.00 Canola for next fall is on its way. The world is having huge cash problems and were not living on a island in western Canada. Time to rethink your farm strategy for 2012. Quickly.

[SASKFARMER3]

liquidated two 20000 bushel contracts week back and will ride it out now till march or April. Dam shame, But hey that's farming.

[BreadWinner]

Were into to Christmas markets, for the prices to go up they must come down. I think we will continue to have huge price swings just have to wait till commodities are the flavor of month. I predict Feb canola at $12.00/ bus. Fert may drop 50-100 per ton on the short term but will ratchet up for seeding.

[fjlip]

Agree Breadwinner, like Moe says historically 9 years out of 10, now is the worst time to sell.
Deliveries for year end need prices from June. However, this might be that 1 year out of 10. Cash flow is king.