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Winnipeg or Minnie? Why not both?

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    Winnipeg or Minnie? Why not both?

    Race heats up to launch Canadian grain exchanges
    JAVIER BLAS
    LONDON— Financial Times
    Published Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2011 4:30PM EDT
    Last updated Thursday, Oct. 20, 2011 7:14PM EDT

    The end of the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly has triggered a race to develop futures contracts for the country’s farmers between the Winnipeg-based ICE Futures Canada and the U.S.-based Minneapolis Grain Exchange.

    The battle between the two small commodities exchanges is the latest sign of how the end of the CWB’s monopoly next year would revolutionize the agribusiness sector in the world’s fourth-biggest wheat and fourth-largest barley exporter.

    The CWB has enjoyed a monopoly to trade wheat and barley from the Prairie provinces of Western Canada since 1942. But the reigning Conservatives introduced legislation on Tuesday to end it by August, 2012, although the CWB is battling the move.

    ICE Futures Canada on Wednesday said it would launch milling wheat, durum wheat – used mostly for pasta – and barley futures contracts if the monopoly ends as expected.

    The exchange, owned by Atlanta-based IntercontinentalExchange (ICE-N125.31-2.93-2.28%) since 2007 and formerly known as the Winnipeg Commodities Exchange, said it planned to list the new contracts for delivery in October, 2012.

    ICE will compete against the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, which in August said it would allow the delivery of Canadian wheat against its 128-year-old U.S. spring wheat contract from mid-2013.

    The MGEX has until now banned the delivery of non-U.S. wheat against the contract, a benchmark for bread bakers.

    The new ICE contract will be denominated in Canadian dollars, creating an advantage against the MGEX’s contract, which is denominated in U.S. dollars.
    But the MGEX could still attract business from Canada on the back of the liquidity of its well-established contract, which is widely used by traders in the U.S. Midwest.

    Industry executives and analysts said that the end of the CWB’s monopoly would pave the way for big traders such as U.S.-based Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Geneva-based Louis Dreyfus Commodities and Glencore to buy cereals directly from Canadian farmers, boosting the need for hedging.

    But Dan Basse, of consultants AgResource in Chicago, warned that the farmers would need time before they felt comfortable about using futures contracts for hedging.

    “It is going to be a learning curve for them,” he said, warning that, in Australia, where the government dismantled a few years a similar wheat board, futures trading has not picked up.

    Brad Vannan, president of ICE Futures Canada, said, nonetheless, that market participants had expressed substantial demand for global benchmark futures contracts designed specifically for Canada.

    “These contracts recognize Canada’s central role in the global agricultural marketplace and they serve an essential role in providing transparent price discovery and risk management tools,” he said.

    The battle for CWB echoes the fight when Australia dismantled the country’s grain monopoly, the Australian Wheat Board, in 2008, which has reshaped the country’s agribusiness industry.

    Cargill, the world’s largest agricultural commodities trader, bought AWB and rivals such as Viterra, GrainCorp, Glencore, Nidera, Toepfer and Bunge entered the market, although wheat futures traded in Australian exchanges have not seen a meaningful pick-up in activity.

    Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved.

    #2
    In my opinion the key for a successful ICE contract will be a meaningful and workable delivery point.

    The Minniapolis contact is deleivery Minny or Duluth could be both but it is interior delivery not west coast port.

    There are a number of big flour mills in the Minnie area, I've delivered to two, I don't think we have anything that could compare here in the west so determining a competitive basis off an ICE contract will be the biggest challenge for Winnipeg.

    Oh well these are great challenges to have.

    Comment


      #3
      Just a note to highlight that early indication is that the new contracts (wheat, durum and barley) will be interior catchment based similar to canola. Yes a return from Lethbridge to Saskatoon based for feed barley. Don't know the exact catchment areas for the wheats.

      Some have highlighted that MGEX as it exists today struggles with volumes relative to the other 2 wheat exchanges. Have talked to some and they highlights were that having an effective forward cash trading system may be what is needed. Hard to get critical mass in a new contract. Having said, it may be the buzz around the new world for western Canada and potential production/export volume may attract market makers (no answer).

      On the volume side, I would suspect the CWB uses the other 2 exchanges (CBT and KCBT). KCBT used for the fixed price contract for mid quality wheats (prairie springs, red winter). Also, many of the market the CWB sells into would use KCBT as a price base (CWRS wheat sold South America/other destinations in competition US hard red winter). This is not likely to change among players in an open market.

      Comment


        #4
        So the grain gamblers are all massing to take advantage of the western Canadian farmers "open market"...how precious.

        Prices will be up and down like a w****s drawers all at the whim of a bunch of friggin gamblers...whoop-dee-do...good times are goin' to roll (at the roll of the dice that is).

        Comment


          #5
          A gentle reminder that the CWB is an active user of current futures markets as a way to establish prices for customers as well as manage risk around their pricing pace model and the producer payment options relative to the overall pooling system.

          The advantage of the proposed ICE contracts is they will bring price signals closer to home and make them more visible. Basis will be more consistent/competitive than the current administered values in the fixed price/basis contracts.

          Comment


            #6
            Are there ANY commodities where the "price signals" are NOT set by a bunch of stinkin' gamblers playing with the stock market?

            Do any grain crops have ANY intrinsic value that serve as a basis for value or price?

            If it costs $90 per acre (not including the land base) to put in a crop then one would expect or desire a ROI to allow a reasonable profit. If other businesses ASK for a certain price for their products, wouldn't it be fair for farmers to have the same option? I guess not...we have gamblers to set our prices and we have no control over them whatsoever. Golly it would be nice to have a trading entity to act on our behalf...but I guess we will have to do without as it is not the Harper way of doing business.

            Comment


              #7
              When I was selling my American wheat to the Conagra Mills at Hastings and New Prauge Minn. I was selling for $1.20 over May Minny (paying extortion to the CWB for a licence) I appreciated the fact that the basis was based on real cash value to the end user.

              Having a solid cash market is key to having a successful futures contract.

              I'm curious to know what others think a reasonable basis for wheat will be?
              should it be similar to canola? What's our starting point? I think a comparison to American border points would be a good place to start.

              Comment


                #8
                Would it not seem reasonable for the basis to be set in relation to the proportion of export to domestic sales.

                If more is set to be exported then the basis would be higher unless they needed the grain and didn't want to pay demurrage. The domestic sale would just be the factor of the trucking rates?

                Comment

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