From DTN,
Wednesday 09/28/11
Aussies--La Nina Developing
Latest analysis by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology says that La Nina is indeed getting underway for the second year in a row. The full rundown is noted here. Also, we are posting our fall weather forecast article series this week--which is focused on the ramifications of a second helping of La Nina.--Bryce
Australian Bureau: La Nina Developing In Pacific Basin
CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--A La Nina climate event, which is usually associated with above-average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia, appears to be developing in the Pacific Basin but counteracting the influence of this is the formation of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Wednesday.
"If a La Nina does form, current indicators are that it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event," the bureau said in a two-weekly review of indicators.
The continuing cooling trend in the central Pacific Ocean since early winter is consistent with a developing La Nina, with sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean in September 4.0 degrees Celsius cooler than average in some areas, it said.
"The majority of leading climate models predict current patterns and trends will continue, with further cooling beyond La Nina thresholds during the last quarter of 2011," the bureau said.
Atmospheric indicators are also trending towards typical La Nina values, it said.
But observations also show a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has formed, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including those of the bureau, it said.
Typically peaking in spring, and in contrast to La Nina, a positive IOD increases the odds of dry conditions over southeastern and central Australia, providing a degree of counter influence on rainfall to La Nina development in the Pacific, it said.
Sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia's north are also average to below average, and so aren't as favourable for rainfall as they were at this time in 2010, it said.
Typically, La Nina conditions result in above-average rainfall over most northern and eastern areas of Australia.
La Nina conditions in the second half of 2010 resulted in heavy rainfall and the flooding of many coal mines in Queensland state, halting production and exports.
The rainfall boosted production in crops such as wheat but also resulted in a downgrading of crop quality due to a wet harvest."
Posted at 6:46AM CDT 09/28/11 by Bryce Anderson
Our winter wheat is seeded. NO rain for us for over 1.5 months.... WOW.
How does winter wheat survive with NO Fall moisture? We need to pray for rain and warm weather to get it growing!
TEXAS the PNW and whole west coast US is VERY DRY! Another La Nina could make a wild volitile market... for livestock and grain growers!!!
Wednesday 09/28/11
Aussies--La Nina Developing
Latest analysis by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology says that La Nina is indeed getting underway for the second year in a row. The full rundown is noted here. Also, we are posting our fall weather forecast article series this week--which is focused on the ramifications of a second helping of La Nina.--Bryce
Australian Bureau: La Nina Developing In Pacific Basin
CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--A La Nina climate event, which is usually associated with above-average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia, appears to be developing in the Pacific Basin but counteracting the influence of this is the formation of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Wednesday.
"If a La Nina does form, current indicators are that it will be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event," the bureau said in a two-weekly review of indicators.
The continuing cooling trend in the central Pacific Ocean since early winter is consistent with a developing La Nina, with sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean in September 4.0 degrees Celsius cooler than average in some areas, it said.
"The majority of leading climate models predict current patterns and trends will continue, with further cooling beyond La Nina thresholds during the last quarter of 2011," the bureau said.
Atmospheric indicators are also trending towards typical La Nina values, it said.
But observations also show a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has formed, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including those of the bureau, it said.
Typically peaking in spring, and in contrast to La Nina, a positive IOD increases the odds of dry conditions over southeastern and central Australia, providing a degree of counter influence on rainfall to La Nina development in the Pacific, it said.
Sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia's north are also average to below average, and so aren't as favourable for rainfall as they were at this time in 2010, it said.
Typically, La Nina conditions result in above-average rainfall over most northern and eastern areas of Australia.
La Nina conditions in the second half of 2010 resulted in heavy rainfall and the flooding of many coal mines in Queensland state, halting production and exports.
The rainfall boosted production in crops such as wheat but also resulted in a downgrading of crop quality due to a wet harvest."
Posted at 6:46AM CDT 09/28/11 by Bryce Anderson
Our winter wheat is seeded. NO rain for us for over 1.5 months.... WOW.
How does winter wheat survive with NO Fall moisture? We need to pray for rain and warm weather to get it growing!
TEXAS the PNW and whole west coast US is VERY DRY! Another La Nina could make a wild volitile market... for livestock and grain growers!!!
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