Early Guesses on the September PRO

[charliep]

PRO is out tomorrow. My guess is the PRO will drop back to July levels (give up everything that was gained in August). Have a look at the historical charts.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2011-12/2011-12fpcbpccharts.pdf"]charts 5 to 12[/URL]

Just for interest (or maybe boring), the producer pricing pace indicates that about 16 % of this years wheat payment pool is priced and the adjustment factor is around $3.40 positive (existing sales are adding value to the pool).

[charliep]

Adjustment factor is on the fixed price contracts by the way.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2011_index.html"]fpc[/URL]

[crusher]

HRS down $18

[charliep]

Both wrong. Summary of results below as well as link to the CWB website (PRO and FPC).

Begin quote:

Weaker Market Outlooks Pressure Wheat and Durum Values in CWB PRO for 2011-12
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its September 2011 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2011-12 crop year. Changes in wheat values since last month's PRO are varied, ranging from up $5 per tonne to down $7 per tonne, depending on class, grade and protein level. Milling durum values have declined between $2 and $11 per tonne since last month. Malting barley has increased by $2 per tonne and feed barley values are unchanged.

End quote.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2011_20110922.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2011-12"]September PRO[/URL]

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/fixed_price/2011_index.html">FPC</a>

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/db/contracts/ppo/ppo_prices.nsf/epo/2011_index.html">EPO</a>

[crusher]

The board must have sold a pile of wheat before the crash. Or maybe they haven't seen the futures market? Oh right, its all the premium markets they have.

[charliep]

Percent priced (best estimate given there is still crop to be harvested) is 22 % to the September PRO.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/pace/calculator.jsp"]bottom of the page[/URL]