Canola stocks

[farming101]

Last year canola disappeared at around 250 thousand tonnes a week. Does someone have a handle on what is needed for pipeline supplies to be at comfortable levels what with the new crush plants on line etc?

[charliep]

Suspect will be 250,000 tonnes a week again in 2011/12. 250,000 tonnes a week times 52 weeks equals 13 million tonnes for nice round numbers.

Suspect will be divided exports and crush at 6.5 MMT - which is higher will be interesting.

None of the above is about what will be produced. Just the opportunity to sell side.

Others thoughts?

[charliep]

Updating myself after a few days of holidays so will include some graphs I am looking at.

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=RSX11"]Nov canola futures[/URL]

<a href="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=ZLZ11">Dec soyoil futures</a>

<a href="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=D6U11">Sep t Loonie futures</a>

Off topic/not related marketing but recommend paddling the Smokie River in Peace River region of Alberta.

Launch the canoes at Watino and get out at Peace River. Enough fast water to make things a little exciting but not enough to make a princess like me panic too much (don't like white water).

[Hopperbin]

Thanks Charlie I also like Canoeing.
so far only been on a little part of South Sask. and little part of Churchill.

[mbratrud]

My bet will be on Domestic crush wins the tonnage, (I hope I wrong and China is here in a big way) and 13 Million will be squeaky. As far as I can see 13.5 million is the biggest crop we will see. 18 mil acres @ 33 bush average. little below trend yield but the last 2 years have been excellent canola years where it got seeded. This difference this year is the heat we seen in July. Just my opinion.

[riders2010]

wonder how much will the possible frost in alta affect the totals?