And the 2011 Canola Crop is in Excellent Shape!

[SASKFARMER3]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH and again HAHAHAHAHAH
First north in early then now dry and frost. South in to wet ground now like last year saturated. SE not seeded.
With more rain on way this is not excellent conditions in western Canada.
Problem is its huge. The acreage wont get in that their predicting. The acreage that is their is loosing production every frost every day. The excess moisture is ruining canola in really wet areas.
Not a great start, oh yea its June 1st.

[agstar77]

How many have pre-sold this falls crop?

[bucket]

What was last year's canola acreage?

Does anyone think we will be over that in harvested acres?

[bucket]

Off topic about canola issue, but if I was a betting man, the cwb has probably sold crop they don't have for this crop year and the next.

[charliep]

Did anyone buy calls on the dip to replace forward contracted canola on the dip in early May. I never worry about information - that changes everyday. I am more interested in what farmers do with information.

[URL="https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1304960024"]May thread[/URL]

Not bragging because that generally bites me in the butt later on. Just encouraging everyone to know what tools are in your marketing tool box and use them when appropriate.

[countryguy]

Doing my buyout this morning....AGAIN......SOB ALREADY..

[T.N.T.]

Nothing pre-sold on our farm,i still have half of 2009 and all of 2010 canola in the bin.I was starting to wonder a month ago if that was such a smart decision anymore,i'm glad i stuck with my original plan.Buyers are phoning steady now and they want it,told them they will get it but not at current price,was offered $13.58 picked up in the yard,i laughed at them and told them they better dig a little deeper,LOL!!

[charliep]

Do you have a price you will sell for? When I see someone with your comment, I see a chart of Lee Melvill's with the stages of marketing stress. Starts with optimism, then the stage of greed, then the stage of fear and finally panic. Not to be too tougue in cheek, have you ever looked at the cost of carry on your canola inventory. Suspect you have made money but may not be as much as you think. You also likely have a lot of your neighbors jealous - most need cash to pay. Farming is not a fair business.

[charliep]

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=RSX11&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W"]weekly canola chart[/URL]

<a href="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=ZLZ11&domain=f arms&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W& quot;>weekly beanoil chart</a>

[smallguy]

No offence TNT, but saying you have half of 09, and all of 10, would put you in a very small percentage in fact rare of farmers that can do that. It does not matter why you have all that grain, whether it is good management, supplement from other income, inheritance, but I hope you do not look at the people that need a crop every year as bad managers, even though I am sure some may be. Every case is different, and has its own reasons. I just hope to many that are in the same situation as yourself do not start advertising or bragging, or maybe we do not need agristability and other programs.

[charliep]

For what it is worth smallguy but my experience is that farms with some financial stress (which is a code word for a normal younger farmer with bills to pay/loans due) when all costs (interest and storage) are included. Another weird comment is there is a lot less stress in a farm family business when they are executing on a marketing plan based on their operations financial needs. Opens up more time to be spent in the business where there is real money to be made - agronomics and production.

[charliep]

Way off the topic but canola is the most interesting market to me. I tend to concentrate on the consumption side (sorry SK3) but somehow the market has functioned to meet buyer needs (export and domestic crush) of about 250,000 tonnes/week (1 mln tonnes/month if that is easier) without a hiccup and allow both smallguy and T.N.T. to market their crop as wish based on their business needs.

To the original topic, acreage will be interesting. Yield even more interesting. Suspect in the range at this point of 12 to 14 mln tonnes with demand for the full crop at either end of this spectrum. The increase in price from a smaller crop will not pay the pain of less to sell. As people have highlighted in the past, the issue will be winners (get a crop that can be sold for a better price) and loosers (small crop to sell).

[hedgehog]

farmer near here like tnt, told us all he had 09 wheat in shed still in aug 10.
when he started emptying it, discovered that roof had been leaking all year. . possibly 100 ton lost from 1,000. only found out cos i rocked up at the wrong monment.
fortuneately, and obviously, he has deep pockets and a rich wife.

[BTOfarmallll]

Cost of carrying grain = $0.00, no matter what. Better worry about real costs there Char.......

[charliep]

Will leave for discussion.

A weird economist view but nobody here has grain in the bin. Everyone who has inventory is storing cash (read dollar bills). Will storing dollar bills as grain provide the best return on money relative to the other places this money could be used/invested? At what risk?

Given what is going on with weather these days, old crop inventory may be a good investment.