How High Can It Go?

[Braveheart]

Wheat had a good bounce yesterday. With FPC's out of our point at $8.18 yesterday I'm thinking that's not a bad starting point for pricing 2011-12 crop. What is the condition of the US winter crop now? Just south of us in ND it is very wet and getting late for them. How high could this market go if conditons don't change soon? What about crop conditions in Europe? Could they influence?

[charliep]

USDA will give us their first 2011/12 crop forecast and S&D tomorrow. Very preminary. Charts are below. MGEX has struggled to get over $9.80/bu. Will leave others thoughts on the charts.

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=MWZ11"]December MGEX[/URL]

[charliep]

Crop condition and planting progress in the US.

[URL="http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-05-09-2011.pdf"]USDA crop progress[/URL]

[boarderbloke]

charliep, thanks for postings the crop progress charts,,,,wow!

re Spring Wheat planting(6 states),

May 8th, 2010...65% complete
May 8th, 2011...22% complete
5 year avg......61% complete

[macdon02]

The white house hosted the same chinamen
monday night that bought more then a boat
load of beans a couple weeks ago. Any bets on
how much corn was sold?

[charliep]

From Europe/E-malt.

EU: Spring-sown malting barley the worst affected by dry weather in northern France, northern Germany and Poland
Paris's May wheat contract, at the last gasp, came within an ace of setting a three-year high as fears over northern Europe's dry spell played against investors trying to cover short positions, Agrimoney.com reported on May, 9.

The May lot spiked 17% at one point, to E280.00 a tonne, a high for the contract.

It was a price beaten only once in the last three years by a contract in the spot position, when the now-expired March lot hit E281.00 a tonne on February 9.

The jump reflected, besides a strong day for Chicago wheat, the global bellwether, concerns over the dry weather which continues to dog parts of the European Union's top four wheat-producing countries – France, Germany, the UK and Poland, in output order. "There was no rain over northern France, Germany and Poland over the weekend and nothing significant in the forecast," Jonathan Lane, trading manager at UK grain merchant Gleadell told Agrimoney.com.

Paris-based Agritel said that the weather was "still a source of concern in northern Europe more specifically in northern France, northern Germany and Poland".

Damage on some areas is "now irreversible", with spring-sown malting barley the worst affected, but wheat also threatened.