Plan B/C on Delayed Seeding/Impact Barley Acres

[charliep]

Already asked in other threads but what are your plan B and C as seeding delays become reality? Impact barley acres.

Ask because here are a couple of articles from E-Malt (as indicated one of my favorite publications I monitor).

Story 1:

The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its global 2011/12 barley production forecast down to 136 million tonnes (previous forecast 137 mln tonnes; 2010/11 124 mln tonnes).

Output in the EU-27 is expected to amount to 54.9 million tonnes (down from 55.4 mln tonnes), in Russia at 16.7 million tonnes (17.5 mln tonnes), in Ukraine at 10.0 million tonnes (10.8 mln tonnes) and in Canada at 8.7 million tonnes.

Global barley use is forecast at 139 million tonnes (138 mln tonnes) including 91 million tonnes for feed, 7 million tonnes for food and 30 million tonnes for industrial use.

Global barley trade is projected to reach 17 million tonnes and ending stocks 23 million tonnes.


Story 2:

Barley prices have held their own over the past couple weeks as the recent high corn prices caused some switch to feed barley as a concentrate source and maltsters worked to fill the last remaining contracts, Kayla Hoffman, a grain merchandiser for Sun Prairie Grain in Minot, N.D, was quoted as saying by Farm & Ranch Guide on April, 28.

“The maltsters are trying to get those last few acres booked by keeping their bids pretty competitive,” Hoffman said. “Right now they are at $6.10 a bushel, which is a pretty aggressive price. It’s been holding its own despite the fall in the corn and wheat markets that we have been experiencing this past week. (The maltsters) still want some acres and I think their bid reflects that.”

Feed barley prices have also remained strong due in part to an increased demand caused by some switching from corn to another feed source.

“Feed barley is reaching values we haven’t seen in a while,” Hoffman said. “We are seeing prices of $4.70 to $5 for feed barley right now and that’s a great price.

End stories.

Are you getting these price signals?

[charliep]

Would also be following pulse acres carefully as well. Lots of factors in a decision but sometimes being a contrarian (going the opposite way from everyone else) pays.

[Wheatking]

Barley was by far the worst crop last year with
all the moisture(peas where also horrible). So
even though this is big malt country most
producers thati have talked too will be switching
to wheat and oats with little barley grown. I
know it may not make the most sense from a
marketing standpoint but you have to grow it to
sell it.

Also in 08a number of producers signed $6 malt
contacts, when the crop came of f in excellent
quantity and quality, it all got rejected to be
accepted later at half price. The maltsters and
cwb have pissed on to many peoples cornflakes
to make it not worth the trouble, for allot of
producers. I did try to sign a malt contract of
$5.5 with an act of god, but was filled before I
signed, they offered $4.90, I told them to forget it.
$6.00 to $5.50 malt would get me to seed and
gamble with a couple quarters, but afar cry
from the 45% we normally seed to barley

I also hate to have crop insurance influence
what I seed but I am guaranteed something like
$360/acre for canola and $140 for barley, kind
of a no brainer.

[boarderbloke]

I agree completely WheatKing, 2008 screw job, high moisture high disease, better returns on other commodities, are all reasons to keep me from planting barley. Planting it late on wet soil doesn't mean you still won't suffer from frost, and who wants frozen light wt. barley, Nobody! In 2004 I got a buck a bus for light frozen barley, should have just put a match to it and saved putting the hours on a new combine.

[Wheatking]

I guess I should answer the question, as you can
see plan b does not include barley.
We got %50 seeded last year.
plan A) if we get started by the 10th. 2/3 canola.
15% oats, 5% barley 10% wheat.

B) if we get started by the 20th less wheat and
canola and more oats.

C) june 1st . Probably 50% smf again, though I
might try seeding something to work down so
suck up moisture. I got some early canola so
that would go in, with a little oats.

We have been soaking wet since 06, and I have
learned not to waste my time if it is too wet.
Seeding by plane does not work, valmar and
harrow does not work, unless you have pre
applied fert. We plan on pre working everything
so I hope that helps. I know with crop
insurance I would be better off financially
seeding no matter what, but that its not what is
best for the land.

[charliep]

Off the original topic but interestingly, Manitoba currently has the highest feed grain prices (pig quality/zero DON) across the prairies. In the livestock feeding areas of Alberta, both feed wheat and barley are $205 ish/tonne (delivered feedmill/feedlot). My understanding is feed barley prices in Manitoba are $220 ish/tonne and feed wheat - $245 ish for feed wheat feed mill bids (I will let Manitobans give a reality check). Interesting feed grain movement and back haul opporunities.

[charliep]

Links to this week's provincial price reports.

[URL="http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/news/markets/grains/pdf/grains_table.pdf"]manitoba[/URL]

<a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/MarketTrends">saskatchewan</a>

<a href="http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/economic/stats/wkgrain.html">alberta</a>

[grrrr]

I actually had a good barley crop last year. Seeded first on my best land. Plump, heavy, good yield and I was happy it was accepted as malt. BUT!!! Less than $4.00/bu. After jumping through all the hoops. Wasn't worth it.

[Klause]

Feed wht delivered to Cargil Dauphin $5.35/bu.

Feed wht delivered to Ethanol plant, Minnedosa, $6.15 - $6.50 / bu.

[jamesb]

what gets me it that alot of the cash plus bids out there are being puched with no act of god. My understanding is that the Maltsters etc dont want to offer AOD therefore putting the risk on the farmer.
What gets me is that some farmers actually signing this things. Its so easy to find means to reject malt.