Malt Barley?

[buzz]

Thanks Charlie for asking these questions and making the points....

My takeaway for this discussion is the barley market is a confused mess with questionable price discover.

Any predictions on 2011 barley acres, up or down? I bet down.

[charliep]

Alberta is close to maximum acres on canola although more canola
wheat canola wheat etc. Suspect peas will be the loser. Barley will
depend on weather next spring and prices over the next 6 months.

The curious part of the world from a seeding intentions will be
Saskatchewan and unseeded acres in the east. I am going to assume
mother nature cooperates somewhat (could be proven wrong this
spring). Even if the spring is difficult, I will bet canola is the crop
that gets prioritized and seeded early as conditions will allow. It
pays the bills.

You can argue my back of envelope math but a 40 bushel/acre
canola crop and $11/bu means a gross of $440/acre. You adjust
cost/acre differences but I would suggest you need $7/bu for malt
barley to be competitive. You have to factor in the probability of a 1
Canada canola versus having the barley selected. You can them the
price and delivery risk management side. Which crop has better fit
with managing profit and cash flow?