Ineteresting week - canola

[furrowtickler]

Posted solid gains again this week (love it b/c cargil said it was going to crash 5 weeks ago) Anyway, interesting b/c it started off lower every morning then ended up with positive gains every day.
Weber's 'canola buddy' underlines the situation IMO - ending stocks..... but cotton, does all this change if there is a market meltdown like '08?

[cottonpicken]

Have spent a long time on this and dont have a good
answer.

A big market sell off would trigger a sell off in
commodities which is the wrong thing for investors to
be doing but i guess it doesnt matter that its
wrong,just probably what would happen.

[charliep]

It was a good week.

Canola futures up $16 to $18/tonne to close around $540/tonne on the January.

CBT beanoil up a penny to close at just under 50 cents/lb on the January contract.

Canola exports to date up 1 % from last year with a need to reduce by more than 10 %.
Canola crush pace to date up 50 % from the same date 2009.

[URL="http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/economic/stats/wkgrain.html"]statistics[/URL]

[charliep]

Don't know how many look at CGC numbers but very interesting in the first quarter of 2010/11. Would highlight visible stocks and deliveries.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2010-11/week-semaine-12/gsw-shg-1-eng.htm"]CGC[/URL]

[CeePen]

Record crush and record exports so far, but also record farmer deliveries. In early Oct, farmers delivered 574,000 tonnes of canola in a single week. Yikes! And you wonder why nothing else is moving. Once deliveries slow down, watch the basis snap back.