Canola Chart Resistance

[crusher]

If we get a reasonable close in canola, I say we confirm a breakout in to new territory. Any chartist out there able to predict the next resistance level and why?

[fjlip]

Leaman says 501.70
Close on Oct 9,2008 was 505
After that who knows...

[charliep]

My two bits are canola has struggles to break $490 on the nearby contract over time so we must be close to the resistance area.

Tried to look at beanoil charts and came back equally as confused. Into new territory on a market that is trending higher.

My issue is not information but rather the decisions that come from information. What is everyone doing from a market planning standpoint? Price into the rally? Run a trailing stop - ride the market higher but look for turning points to pull the trigger? Sell cash/buy calls? Watch the market rallies and buy puts?

[charliep]

Know should leave just as a futures posting but interested in what is happening on the discount for off grade and tough/damp front. This years challenge is to work towards pricing most of your canola (including its worts, blemishes and challenges) in the top half of the pricing at your bin. You may have priced some already. Also no one will sell 100 % of their crop at once but knowing what canola field supplies to what market will add on nuances and challenges to any plan.

[btjadenlepp]

we're trying to decide whether or not to
start 2011 sales today.

[checking]

"No one will sell 100% of their crop at once."

Technically you are correct. My estimates of grain in storage is always lowballed by a few B's. Yet, if I had wmoebis hired, you would not be correct!

If I can store 100% of my crop, I can sell 100% at once. Just show me the money I want before the phone is back on the receiver.

My handle is changed to "no one". (lol)

[northfarmer]

we have flat priced some 2011 canola off the combine at 10 bucks...seems like a good place to start...

also did some futures only hrw fpc, no basis but should be a good start for 2011 winter wheat that is in ground

[RedRiverMB]

we locked in some 2011 canola t $10.00, no basis,
should hit over 10 later with basis. Also did some FPC
on HRS, with basis in Feb we should get $6.50 plus. I
am very happy with that for a start. Oats will be the
next one we look at and Soybeans

[cottonpicken]

Brenda ho w did 2010 average out for you?

[Partners]

Louis Dreyfus raised there basis from $10 to $21 and Bunge from $10 to $26 today...So the chart numbers don't mean much when the company's want the price to remain @ a certain number and they just take the rest...There is no limit to basis..

[JDGreen]

Priced 1/3 of new crop at 10.50 today. Delivery ASAP

[furrowtickler]

Nothin wrong with that move j.d., very few times if ever that price is obtained in Sept. BTW, basis is going to widen as more areas get harvesting - law of the jungle.

[charliep]

Perhaps also law of the lineup. Suspect the market will try to provide the signal
to slow deliveries by providing large carry. Carry is in the futures prices but also
will get built further into basis. Basis levels are likely to narrow as we proceed
into winter and spring.

[crusher]

I rolled my off combine basis further out when the carry was negligible, that's why I'm more concerned in the futures. Quality around here is not an issue in the canola, just have to get it near dry.