Flax market

[newguy]

Price has risen 75 cents in 2 days and hit 13 bucks today at Weyburn Pioneer. Origanally said I would sell some newcrop at 13 but now think there is no hurry. My flax was ready to straight combine when frost hit so I am sure with a bit of weather it will get in the bin. Is 15 bucks being unrealistic?

[mbratrud]

Whats the downside? Can't imagine it will cost anything to wait and find out? $15 is my target as well. Triffid positive will possibly trade at a discount.

[furrowtickler]

If there is only one glass of water in the desert, what's it worth? $15 for sure within a month IMO.

[bigsteve]

In 2008 the Supply and Demand numbers were'nt as tight as they are going to be this year and in july/08 I sold my flax for $20/bus.The underlying strenghth that we have in the market that we never had in history is that we as farmers are in the oil business through ethenol and biodiesel.The world and particularily the USA is embracing bio-fuels not only because they do not like the way middle-east countries spend the money from oil[eg. 9/11] but also now the BP[british petroleum] event off the florida coast.We are charting new territory??????

[boarderbloke]

bigsteve, I agree. I posted a couple months ago, that I'd sell my Triffid free flax with a 2 out front. I'm even more confident today, than I was back then.

[SASKFARMER3]

Flax will definitely have a 2 in front of it most in our area is not going to get harvested since frost event did it in. One half section sprayed two weeks before is totally flat on ground but should make something.

[mbratrud]

I hope you guys are right $20 flax would be nice. I guess if a guy was going to wait for $15 why not wait for $20. Downside is limited until we get to the upper teens. How many guys sold $20 flax in 08? If you did congratulations for being disiplined. I know a few guys that are still holding 08 flax hoping they get a chance to sell at $20 again. I wonder if they will sell it this time.

[newguy]

Sold flax at 18.40 in 08. It did hit 20 a bit later but many that did not sell at that we all know what happened.That year was more of all comodities running up fast. This rally has to be actual supply and demand that takes it up.Not saying it can not happen but with trade now you never know when someone shuts down a market.

[commonsense]

Big Steve, what percentage of the flax crop do you figure goes to bio-diesel?

[bigsteve]

Commonsense. 0% of flax goes into biodiesel. Corn,wheat,soybeans canola are all dragging up the price of each other.The price of all ag.commodities are inter-related. The S&D numbers are looking especially bullish for flax as well oats.The way the stars are lining up this year---we could have prices surpass those of 2008????