Western Sask/Alberta Canola Crop

[skhadenuf]

furrow, it depends somewhat on what acres we are talking about, if we are talking about all acres including drowned out and acres that crop insurance has started to write-off then the average will be lower acres seeded considered higher, if we are looking at acres that only will be harvested then average yield higher but acres down substantially. There are no 20 bushel canola crops average in our neck of the woods, after 3.5 inches again this week I think there will be a bunch more worked down if and when the tractors can go. That's just my opinion also.
SF3 is right also we are way way behind in terms of development, there is a better than average chance that with a august 25 frost 75% of what is left will be toast not even flowering yet. most of those yellow fields are fields of volunteer canola and wild mustard from last year too wet to spray out this year.

[furrowtickler]

I am thinkin harvested acres western Can, too high? Or too early to make such a guess givin the ongoing conditions?

[skhadenuf]

You're right furrow, too early to know, some is obviously toast, but for example what part of the fields will farmers work out, will they leave the 4 bushel/ acre appraised fields because that is about 30 bucks an acre hit to absorb if they till it out or will they leave it to harvest and possibly with more rain or frost get their 0 production off those acres. that reminds me that is something that needs to be improved upon you shouldn't have to take a 30 buck acre hit that should be wrote off now and get on with it.

[mbratrud]

furrow if you are right that would be pretty bullish for Canola, I will go with 15 mil harvested at 28 bus. Still a bullish number.

[furrowtickler]

watch canola markets over the next few days... They now know the crop ins acres, they are no longer trading 16.75 mill acres. It was just a matter of time.

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny they get the information before farmers since they pay for it. Hm My guess is 12.8 mill acres canola. at 28