Durum Market

[TOM4CWB]

Jag and co.;

How much will it actually cost to switch to the 10-11 Pool year?

I can not understand how we got down to $3.50/bu [#2 13px] farm gate for 2009-10 CWB pool.

If this is a 'premium' price average for the whole crop year... how cheap did the CWB actually sell the majority of the crop at? $2.50/bu farm gate?

[furrowtickler]

Good point Tom, they gave away a huge chunk of 09/10 wht in every catagory.

[JoeyPotato]

wmoebis,

I couldn't disagree more. Free trade is what keeps our industry competitive. The only crops showing neg returns are the communist controlled cwb crops. Everything on the free market pecinls a profit, if a crop can be grown. Some crops show a much larger profit than others, eg. letntils vs feed barley, but a profit still the same.

I do not want to be a subsidized farmer, working for a chq from the government.

Emergency aid is always needed when a disaster strikes, but free trade and a open market is always the preferred solution when compared to a EU type of subistized farm system.

The conservatives signed more bi-lateral free trade agreements in there first term than the liberals did in 3 terms combined. I say go Ritz go. Keep doing what your doing. Let the market sort out the rest. It will soon realize how much crop has been lost and we will see a increase in price. The market is never wrong, sometimes just delayed in coming to the right decision.

My 2c.

[checking]

JP. Good on you for not wanting to be a subsidized farmer.

Wmoebis. Good on you for not selling below the cost of production.

Me. I'm staying the course.

I want a hit it out of the park, unapologetic homerun. I want to make a bloody killing that is an obscene amount of profit for my grain.

What I won't accept is a cost of production. What I won't accept is a few cents above cost of production. What I won't accept is a target price, like the big white X on the back of a flaming red shirt preceded by drums announcing my location to be picked off.

[wmoebis]

Joey, I won't disagree with you. All I am saying is if 7000 farmers refused to sign the "A" CWB contract. Not one tonne, that would send the word to WPG and Ottawa pretty dam clear. We are losing money on wht and durum and malt barley any how. If 7000 farmers refused to sell peas for $4 or $5 a bus that would tell the market place what we wanted and deserve.

I don't believe they would ever do that because they want they other 15% to get out so they can get bigger and they can do this by keeping the prices low. Once they have them out they will start working on they smallest of the 7000 then 5000 then 3000 pretty soon it will be all the likes of One Earth farms. Large corporate farms.

I have less CWB crops seeded this year than ever before and I increased my seeded acreage besides. I made a statement on the PRICE of SPR WHT and durum with my drill. I don't care if it is the CWB or open market I don't like the price. The price was higher in the 70's why, because when we didn't like the price we increased our cattle or hogs, fed more at home grew more non traditional crops like flax or summer fallowed more, rather than seeding stubble crops, until the price came back to us. Instead what are we doing today? Grow more fill the bins. Then listen to guys like De Putter telling us to sell at rock bottom prices, dump it to make way for a bigger crop. Buy more fert grow more, get more efficiant get more land.

Show me even one market in the world that can or will take all western Canada's production and give us the returns that we saw in the 70's (almost 40 years ago) then add on inflation to catch up to the times. Further more would they maintain that price? If those markets are out there why aren't accredited exporters jumping all over them? Why aren't the pea and lentil guys getting them for us? These are likely our free trade partners of the future and they aren't getting it for us and the CWB isn't getting it for us. Why because 7000 farmers are willing to sell 85% of the crop at or below the cost of production.

Maybe, Joey you would refuse to sign the "A" contract to make a statement on the price or the CWB if you will, but would the other 6999? No, because maybe they want you out too.

As far as Ritz goes, read Agriculture trade mission to Mexico "Jan 2010" then read Hursh's comentary today. What did he promise them to get them so pissed in 5 months? Things were fine till he went there.

My buck 5 80

[samhill]

Checking, could you elaborate on your opinion of
picking a target price. I don't do it but have been
wondering if I'm missing opportunities.

[checking]

It's too soon; way to soon for a reaction. I'm not impressed with any grain prices to date, specifically with my area of interest in flax and oats. Nor am I about to suggest that a few cents more is what it will take, at this juncture, to get interested.

However, samhill, if you really believe you are missing an opportunity, then I think you have answered the direction you should take.

[samhill]

Hmmmm, I wonder about a lot of things I don't do as
they could be detrimental to my health.
Specificly, if a buyer says he just filled an order 40
cents over what the market is paying, then asks me if I
want to set a target price.
Since it's known that grain companies hire
psychologists to study farmer selling, I think I'm being
conned. People I know say I'm paranoid, but that
doesn't mean I'm not being followed.