2002 Crop Acreage

[charliep]

I attended a canola crop industry meeting today and was surprised by their response on potential acres for next year. I always like to ask people at the meetings I do the following question.

If today were April 15 and prices were similar to current values, what would you seed this spring? Assuming central Alberta (I am rounding so don't get too upset if not exact). That is, canola $7.50 to $7.75/bu, feed barley $3 to $3.25/bu, 2 row malt barley - $3.50 to $3.75, CPS wheat - $4/bu (non board), higher protein spring $4.50/bu, milling/pony oats $2.50 to $3/bu, etc. What if it stays as dry as it is now.

[charliep]

I forgot peas. Feed $4.50 to $5/bu. Edible $5.50 to $6/bu.

[ianben]

Hi Charlie.
What was their responce and why did it surprise you?

Regards Ian

[rain]

If it is dry we seed to crop insurance, in theis area it is CPSR.

If conditions are good we we maintain our rotation.

Calgary East

[charliep]

Ian

The surprise was expectations that canola acres would be similar to this last years to down (again highlighting it was a canola industry meeting with mostly agronomists/farm managers). The main concern, however, was dry topsoil and its negative impact on small seeded crops like canola. Timely rain would help increase acres. An issue to note for farmers on our side of the ocean is the inverse between old and new crop. Jan. to July 200w contracts around $354/t. Sept./Nov. 2002 closer to $325/t. Another note is that basis levels are still fairly wide in the spot (some shopping can narrow) but many of the companies are getting very aggressive on late spring/summer basis contract offerings.

I think you highlighted acreage shifts in the UK winter crops in another thread but it would be usefull to get another update.

[rain]

0 basis or option is being offered for April May Canola Calgary region now.

[melvill]

rain,

0 basis, you say? Is that just one company or is an extremely low basis like that available generally in the Calgary area? What are basis levels like for Jan, Feb & Mar delivery?

Lee