Crop is seeded and now its turning dryer in southern Argentina. North closer to Brazil wet. So two full weeks of rain in Brazil and less should knock some of the yield down.
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I now read Brazil soybean crop size estimates of 68 MMT .This is silly talk. The crop is 64 MMT give or take a little.
Rust has mushroomed the past week in Parana state. Medium maturing soybeans are being hurt. Lets keep this in perspective. This is not a disaster. The rust is taking the top end yield off in some areas. Lots of rain. The crop is big. It's just not quite as big as some of the experts are saying. -
Another quote from http://brazilintl.com/states/matogrosso/korymelby/blog_korymelby/korymelby.htm
It looks like some good rains for central Mato Grosso the next 2 weeks.
These are normal volumes of rain.
Keep in mind it is normal to get 2 inches during the night and be harvesting by 10 am the next day.
Until I hear or see talk of an extended 2 week rain event. Harvest progress will continue unabated.
Soybean prices have dropped considerably. Western Parana prices are now R$35 a sac or US$ 9.35 a bushel.
Interior Mato Grosso prices are R$28 reais per sac US$ 7.50 per bushel.
These are basically cost of production prices.Comment
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Ah yes but that was written two weeks ago and it has rained every day since. Now it looks like disease will be a problem. Just saying harvest is not done till its done. Speculation is great. I am predicting 100 bushel wheat and 75 Canola and 150 Oats, But then its only Jan not May when I am seeding. Happens every year lots of BS to brag up the crop then slowly slowly it drops.Comment
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regardless of weather and disease south America bean production is projected to increase 29 mmt plus, over last years production.Comment
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