Weatherman is a fink!

[frustrated1]

Sooo, we couldn't beg a raindrop all summer despite the promises of our billion dollar sub culture called environment canada. The last 2 weeks have seen just enough drizzle and snow to put serious doubt in finishing harvest. Now, the promises of 20 for Saturday and low teens in the coming week have slid to single digits and rain. 'Course, they've been wrong to this point, why should that change? What better job, really, than a weatherman? Millions of dollars of toys at your disposal, most of the country watches you three times a day and you have no accountability. By their own admission long terms are 55% acurate. That's a coin toss. Maybe they should have a slding pay scale based on how quickly the snow melts(or doesn't) out of the swaths? On the other hand, if we have to leave some crop out, it might as well be the one that never had rain to produce yield in the first place. This could be a long, grumpy winter.

[furrowtickler]

I remember David P. with environment Canada specifially saying at the end of Sept that - As far as we can see out our computer models show continuing warm and dry weather into Nov. Temps were to stay above norm for the forseable future.
Whoever designed those computers should be lynched. How is it possible to be so completely wrong?
Drew Learner was the only one calling for three weeks of well this. Our Canadian system is a joke.

[checking]

If I were to have a weather service, it would be zero cost since it would be based on exactly what the weather was the day before. Sure, I'd miss the big weather change events for a day, but my percent accuracy would be way up there.

Snowed yesterday, snowing again this morning! Is that Drew's model?

[Zaphod]

Nobody answered when I asked if Lerner was the guy that was calling for frost in August. Boy, that was bang-on. Maybe he's the better guesser right now. Or maybe if people are paying for the service, they are biased to think he's more accurate. It kind of justifies paying the dollars. Just a thought.

[bduke]

Drew's statement yesterday PM.

In the meantime, this snow event is on its last 24
hours. By afternoon Friday, all significant snowfall will
be over. Western areas were already dying out this
afternoon with partial sunshine returning to Alberta.


Bill

[furrowtickler]

It did freeze in August, although light. I don,t subscribe to Drew's forcast just ge it second hand.
I know how to sum up the weather as well, watch the movie Groundhog Day.

[dave4441]

Zaphod-I do subsribe to World Weather and for our area, SW Sask he never called for frost in August. I think there were concerns about the trends, but i was never put on guard re my own crop during Aug. Other areas where a little different, but I do not follow the trends for other regions, or at least to the point I would remember them.

[Zaphod]

OK, fair enough. It must have been someone else. I just remember some guys panicking at the time.

[bduke]

Drew also stated yesterday:

A cool front will push through the prairie Saturday
night into Monday. The frontal system will restore a
more normal range of afternoon temperatures into
the single digits and lower teens. The frontal
system will not come without at least some
precipitation. As noted above, some of the forecast
models are suggesting a band of moderate to heavy
rain may occur from interior southern Alberta
through the heart of Saskatchewan to the northern
Interlake region of Manitoba. Rain totals of 5 to 20
millimeters and local totals to 25 millimeters are
possible from the region extending between
Lethbridge and Calgary through Luseland and
Hazlet and Domremy and Govan to Red Earth and
Cowan. Precipitation totals outside of this band will
vary from 1 to 6 millimeters with poor coverage.
Some areas in northern Alberta, far southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba may be left
dry. Almost all of the precipitation will occur late
Saturday night and Sunday.

What an October!.... Bill

[dave4441]

one other comment, is that if you follow any analyst on a day to day basis they will all make changes as time progresses, you can not just take one comment out of a month of analysis and stake a individual's "worth" on that one moment. Things change and any good analyst changes as models or markets/environment change.