A lightbulb moment....

[grassfarmer]

I would agree that we need to get away from this idea that we are dependent on being a beef exporting country. History shows that it has been a spectacular failure as far as beef producers income is concerned. A few transnational corporations in retailing and processing have found it to be highly profitable though.
The numbers issue is going to be academic fairly soon in my opinion - I wouldn't be surprised if we have a huge sell off of cows again this fall which will bring our production down close to domestic demand. This may work to the advantage of the survivors if we can play the patriotic card as discussed above to make imports more difficult.
I like supply management - it works so well in milk and feathers but don't think western beef producers would ever accept it even in the unlikely event government were to consider it. The packer/processors would make sure government didn't look at it - it sure wouldn't work for them if they had to pay a price for cattle that was sustainable for the producer.
I don't know if the hog industry is heading for supply management but if they do they are about 20 years too late - they would be supporting corporate mega-barns versus family sized hog producers as they have largely gone by the wayside already.

It was hilarious at the Border Beef event to hear existing supply management raised by several speakers as a market access problem for the beef sector. What BS - I didn't challenge them on it this time but have done in the past. Just ask them to name one country that has indicated they would buy some/more Canadian beef if we got rid of supply management and they can't. It is another bogus issue. Trying to destroy other Canadian farmers incomes is working for the same transnationals that are screwing us over - and its being funded by our check-off money!

[kato]

I agree that there is going to be a further reduction in the cow herd. Just go for a drive and anyone can see for themselves. Around here there are a lot of grain fields that are fenced. I drove to the city Saturday, and went for one stretch where I saw no cows, no hay bales, no fences for about 40 miles. None.

If the numbers got low enough, I would think that rather than pay more for Canadian cattle, we would lose one of the two big packers left. Guess which one? They have no loyalty to us, and if the money isn't there, and easy, they will be gone without looking back. The day that happens, it will probably be supply management or nothing, because the remaining packer will be running wild and plundering to their heart's content.

I don't begrudge any dairy farmer the proper compensation that they earn for their milk. Anyone with that kind of commitment to doing chores deserves every penny.

[smcgrath76]

I see in our neighbourhood that supply
management has not stopped
consolidation. I think if we get down
to 1 processor we are in real trouble,
although it may indirectly pave the way
to a new form of doing business.
Perhaps the challenge of diversity
amongst producers can also be our
strength. If our remaining processors
compete strictly on price what can a
producer or group of producers offer
outside of that. Perhaps some grassfed
product, some barley finished, some
natural, some associated with a
particular ecoregion/breed/heritage,
etc.
We do need a facility, but this type of
action is very difficult for a
transnational to counteract. Imagine an
advertising campaign where you can show
the buyer exactly who they are
supporting with their purchase, and
producers that are empowered to access
specific markets with their specific
production methods.
The challenge I see with quota is that
it definitely limits the opportunity for
new entrants, and it is a hidden
consumer tax.