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a weird combination of kpb and cowman thinking....

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    a weird combination of kpb and cowman thinking....

    Your comments previously and on a recent post about producers who don't care about profitability got me thinking kpb. I share the same concerns as you in this regard, and I think it is one of the things that makes it difficult for young producers to get into the business in a proper way.
    Now as for where cowman fits. With a lot of the discussion regarding aging producers, land costs, etc. on here I think this is part of the problem.
    1. A producer over the age of say 65 has quite a bit to gain by showing no profit. CPP, old age security, etc. I think this affects cash flow on these operations more than a lot of us would appreciate. Your debt is paid down and you are getting a regular cheque, but if you show too much profit then they will claw some back. I know this is not strictly true, and that things are not a bed of roses out there, but I think it is a factor.
    2. Land prices are accelerating in a lot of the cattle raising areas. The acreage owner drives a lot of this indirectly. Land ownership laws are part of the problem/solution. A lot of people want to live in the country and our philosophy over time has been to let them. This has driven up land prices beyond productive capacity. As well, it has driven many farms to split or shave off chunks for acreages, often retiring huge amounts of debt in the process.

    A couple of issues here. Young ag producers have a hard time getting started. Older producers can't effectively sell an economically sized unit and get full value out of their land appreciation. Changing land use/ownership laws could greatly damage the potential equity value of current landowners, cash flow versus profit drives a lot of producers (probably particularly so in the older generation).

    Before CS or anyone jumps all over me, I know that each individual is responsible for their operation, I am just thinking out loud about a lot of these driving forces that heretofore have not been present in the Canadian industry.

    #2
    Just read a quote by Joel Salatain yesterday that seems fitting "One of our critical challenges right now is to develop the prototypes whereby a white collar salary can be earned on land that is largely controlled by elderly, discontented, pessimistic, non-creative geezers"

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      #3
      Try and make a hay deal with the 70 somethings-all want cash-no receipts-nothing like a pensioner trying to make his money twice before he dies.Some of those other world bred prices are high tax bracket deals also. I like dealing with guys my own age making their living ranching-yes there are some out there. Ranching today is maybe not so much doing everything right but doing less things wrong than the other guy.There's alot of optomism out there if you look for it-got an order for 500 breds over next 5 years and a 700 head A'I' deal this last week-so not everybody wallowing in their dispair-these guys both make their living off their ranches-granted they both run big outfits but they run them pretty efficiently-funny thing both calve on grass too-do I see a trend developing lol.

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        #4
        Some optimism over on the TEAM website cs. The guy that passed his cow/calf pairs at $1375 today. Even for 1st and 2nd calvers that's a fair sum at this stage in the cattle cycle, given the cull price, isn't it?

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          #5
          Considering the average age of farmers in this country is 55 I would not be quite so anxious to come to the conclusion that any farmer over 65 is rolling in dough. Many of the farmers in this area are still paying down debt, working from morning to night etc. Any of you try and run a household, pay utillities etc. on Old Age and CPP pensions ??

          Judging by the amount some of my neighbours are getting in pensions it would take some juggling to keep utilities paid and fuel in a vehicle !!! Mind you the seniors I know that are farming are too busy at home to spend much time on the road anyway.

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            #6
            This definitely is the problem in the area I live in. How can any young guy afford $3000 land and ever hope to pay for it...hell even pay the interest!
            In the mean time the farmers keep getting older...
            The brain trust at the municipality thought they had a solution with land use policies? You get designated Ag B you are supposed to be like dogpatch or something! All the peasants toiling away in bliss....however a strange thing happened? Why would a wealthy urbanite want to pay $400,000 for three acres when he could have 160 for $480,000! So now he buys a "farm" instead of an acreage! Might rent it back to some enterprizing soul or maybe just keep it to run the quad on...or a few horses or alpacas or something!
            Oh well, its good for the hay business!

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