March 7

[dalek]

Just got a message through a mutual contact that one of our former Federal Ag Ministers met informally last week with some former counterparts from the USDA in Washington and was told that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell of the border opening in March, more like fall at the earliest.

[dalek]

Take it for what it's worth, but according to them the decision has already been made, the current USDA investigation is just window-dressing to justify the decision.

[grassfarmer]

Perhaps realistic given this is Mid January and there will be reports to file, R-CALF injunctions to fight? Governments seem unable to move with any great speed. Of course it doesn't really hurt the US to keep it closed for longer - their packing plants here will get the chance to make that much more money. Tyson shutting his plants down in the US was a gimmick - it's clear that their Brooks plant made more money than all the US ones combined last year so they really can't lose.

[kato]

I heard from someone last fall who knew someone 'on the inside' in the government who said it would be open before November - 2004.

It's a crap shoot. Everyone knows someone who knows something.

What I'm wondering is how much of a difference it will make. The red tape attached to feeders will have costs attached to it. I'm sure those costs will be subtracted from what buyers are willing to pay. Is there enough extra money in a sale to the States to make it worthwhile?

I would think fats would do better, but by how much?

Cows should improve, based on the fact that they want the cow beef, but not the live cows. That would be a help, especially if those cows were being processed in Canadian producer owned plants.

[Braveheart]

I agree with your comments Kato. Also, the biggest fundamental affecting prices of all classes might be the level of the Canadian dollar.

[smcgrath76]

My thought is that the border opening is not going to strengthen prices greatly (dollar aside), but that it may (might) produce some stability in prices week to week, thus making marketing decisions somewhat easier.

[rkaiser]

Marketing desicions - that's a good one Sean. Do you mean something along the lines of, "instead of loosing 30 dollars this week I can project a loss of only 20 dollars next week."

Do you think cow prices will come up if the open border attracts come fats and Lakeside switches to harvesting cows.

(One thing all of this chatter with Americans has taught me is to use the word Harvest rather than Kill, and Process rather than Slaughter.)

[dalek]

I don't know who's right anymore, but I do know I don't believe the cheerleading coming out of CCA and AAFC.

[smcgrath76]

Something to that effect Randy. Basically I am looking forward to a slight bit of risk reduction. For example many producers may ship cattle for sale with an overnight stand. If they sell the next day and a negative (or positive) press story comes out then the price can change by several cents in the period of a few hours.
We may not even lose less, but at least we might be able to see it coming.
I think that moving into value added processing of our own (Cdn) cattle is a preferred option for risk management but if I knew how to tackle that one, I would already be underway.
I think that there is profit to be had in the beef industry, but definitely not in the same way we have always gotten it.

[smcgrath76]

At an ABP Zone meeting last fall we were advised that the female numbers are way down in the US and of course if we can move the older cows out of the system they may be down significantly here in CAN. due to the sell off of heifer calves in 03 and o4. Do you think that will make a significant difference in our over production levels ?

[grassfarmer]

I don't know how much it will affect our production Emrald - I question how big a heifer sell off their was in 04 given the calf set-aside program. Depends how many moved their heifers before they worked out the program.
I wouldn't assume that reduced cow numbers either in the US or Canada will result in better returns for the cow/calf producer.
I think the new era that will dawn after the border opens might disappoint us. With the increasing strangle-hold that the packers have on feedlots/ primary producers the potential for upturn in the market will not be what it was in the past.
I read last week in connection with the Bonnett feedlot case that 15% of feedlots are in the same position - the banks holding the gun to their heads with their only survival option being to custom feed for the packers. We may think there is little progress in the border opening or new packing plants being built but there are huge changes going on in the industry as a whole - and none of them good for cow calf producers.

[ALICIA]

If the cow-calf guy no longer operates then I guess it is the end of meat on the market. The diet will eather be veg's or chicken and maybe a little pork, if they can operate in the North pole seeing that know one wants them to raise pigs next door because they may smell ??? now and then.

[Horse]

You may all be right but at Neilsons Clyde the quote 600# strs 106 to 120 so some one is hoping on things getting better and Nielsons owning a hell of a whack of cows and they quoted a high of 30cents.
There are a lot of people around here that are throwing in the towel I guess they are tired of puting in thier wages for nothing and the alfa cube plant is rumored to shut down so a lot more land up for rent, along with dire predictions on the canola picture it seams like real interesting times coming.

[Horse]

grassfarmer, I would suggest that the 15% of feedlots may be a conservative estimate. Interesting that there hasn't been anything in the news about Bonnets since the first flurry of news items. Wonder what is happening there ?

[BFW]

Gentlemen, I do not nor should you believe that anywhere even near 15% of Alberta feeding operations are in the same or even similar situation to that of the Bonnett's. The last 2 turn of cattle have been more or less profitable and the government programs saved a bllod bath in most cases. Certainly Bonnett's were in a unique position when BSE struck (having a large inventory of cows on feed) but with the numbers being tossed around(35-40 million dollars)of what their losses are, something doesn"t quite add up here. The Alberta feeding industry is in better shape than you will believe albeit with exceptions. It is and will continue to be a competitive bidder for feeder cattle. Take that coffee shop talk with a grain of salt!